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Tractor Talk Discussion Board

Re: The future of farm tractors


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Posted by Centex Farmall on December 28, 2014 at 08:41:34 from (72.105.167.228):

In Reply to: The future of farm tractors posted by prawn farmer on December 28, 2014 at 06:02:39:

I honestly believe they won't change a whole lot from what we have now.

Look at tractors built in 1950 and then 1980, a 30 year leap. Big changes were made.
Now look at 1980 vs. 2010, another 30 year jump. Hmm, different but not as dramatic. Yes, now the sheet metal is aero and hood lines a little lower but most changes were on the inside such as electronic transmissions. The layout and funtions are largely the same.

What happens is that certain conventional ideas work well and technology converges. The low hanging fruit it picked and the work switches to making if more efficient or convenient to operate.

Do the same decade by decade analysis with aircraft and the results are the same. An airplane built in 1980 looks quite a lot like one built today, but vastly different from one built in 1950. Again the changes from 1980 are to avionics and engine efficiency.

I don't see the autonomous tractor thing happening in a big way. When you ad all the controls and inputs necessary for that type of operation you also greatly increase the chance that something will go wrong with it. Simply put, too may parts!

For the same reason we don't have pilot-less airliners we probably won't have driver-less tractors. The liability and consequences are too dire if one gets loose. A 150 horse tractor would do a number on somebody's house! In our area the fields go right up and into the towns.

Autopilots on aircraft fail/malfunction every day and GPS signals are relatively weak and prone to interference and jamming by accidental sources. I've seen it in person!

The military makes good use of remote operated drones, but sometime look at how many they've lost!

Cost will also be a factor. I haven't shopped so someone fill me in; How much does a brand new 150 horse Deere cost? How much more will it cost to ad a reliable self driving system?

My guess is that for most operators it won't pencil out with 3 dollar corn. As emerging economies adopt high yield GMOs commodity prices will stabilize at moderate levels.


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