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Future price of fuel

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Spook

01-10-2008 19:24:46

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I was reading the Farmer's Advance today, and Alan Guebert, the writer quoted a statistic that I found to be pretty interesting:

# of cars per 1000 population: US: 1020 China: 8 India: 11

Fastest growing economies: China & India.

Long term, the price of fuel has nowhere to go but up.

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buickanddeere

01-12-2008 07:17:27

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

There is no energy short, we are just running out of easy & cheap accessed energy. The entire US can run on biodiesel made from algae grown in the Southwest in salt water ponds. There is also coal liquidfication and hydrogen from nuclear and wind power. We need enough nuclear to carry to run peak electrical demand and on off peak split water into hydrogen with nuclear & wind power. "The sky is falling, the sky is falling"..... ...not.

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Homesteader

01-11-2008 17:17:07

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

Just my two cents regarding fuel usage. I hear a lot of folk talking about how we need to cut back our driving, or drive more economical vehicles. Not everyone can do that. I use a work van for my business, to carry tools and parts and the like. No way to go smaller. As for living closer to my work, it just can"t be done around here. The bulk of my work is in a very wealthy island community that I couldn"t afford to live in if I upped my prices a thousand percent. The workers who flood into the island every day live 30 to 60 miles away on average. It"s the nearest a working man can afford. And as for the oft-heard "just up your prices"... I"m charging what the market will bear. Higher and I lose business.

For me it"s simple. As fuel and related costs go up, I lose money. Period. And I lose doubly: greater expense and lower real income. At some point I"ll hit that critical level, and I"m just not sure what I"ll do then.

(I"ll figure it out, though. I always have.)

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buickanddeere

01-12-2008 07:07:04

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Homesteader, 01-11-2008 17:17:07

If you do quality work and have happy customers. They are going to pay your higher price and your services will be wanted even more because..more $$$=better. I'm a working guy in the trades and make more than many professionals in the engineering, legal, financial and medical sectors. There hasn't been anybody in my division make less than $100,000 for years.

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Homesteader

01-17-2008 05:57:47

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to buickanddeere, 01-12-2008 07:07:04

You"re right about customers, particularly wealthy ones, paying a higher price for quality work. No question. My rates are already considerably higher than just about everyone in my line of work, and I"ve got plenty of it. But there"s a ceiling to everything.

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Kelly C

01-11-2008 12:20:52

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

I dont know about all that.
I believe its in our own best interest to wean our selfs from oil. We are not comanders of our own fate when we are dependent on the middle east. In my opinion it is well worth the cost just for that fact alone. The green wienies could come along for the ride as we free our selfs from the forign shackles.

It really worries me that the USA is nothing more than a cunsumtion machine. There is a very good reason the goverment wants to keep lowering interest rates rather than incurage savings.
we have to keep buying to keep it all going. imagine if we didnt buy any new pieces of junk for just one month?
what is it like 90% of our commerce is imports?
Thats bad very very bad.

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ChrisB

01-11-2008 10:39:46

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

T-Rev said: As far as autos go the US(including foreign brands engineered and made here) is getting way ahead on alternative fuels, and we are pretty close to breaking something really useful out.[/quote:0e12947068]

I take it you have never been to Brazil where they import on like 3% of their energy needs (US around 60%) since the first oil crisis. Nor seen that every gas station in Brazil has bio-fuel and cheaper then in the US , and a 4% discount if you pay cash (a privilege that the corporate lobbyists took away from us). All from a country many consider a 'third world'.

Are the big 3 not at the bottom of the list worldwide as far as average MPG goes?

Anyone remember in 2003 the Opel that averaged 155mph for 24 hours all while getting 117mpg. Not seen anything close to that here in the US.

[quote:0e12947068="T-Rev"]
One thing that makes me mad is when everyone complains about the big 3. Most everything worth inventing auto wise originated in American cars the last 100 yrs.

Disc brakes invented by Frederick Lancaster in the UK

Drum brakes and shock absorbers invented by Louis Renault in France

Diesel engine invented by Herbert Stuart in UK

Anti-lock brakes by the French Gabriel Voisin

Modern fuel injection by Bosch in Germany

First turbocharged diesel car by Mercedes

Continuously variable transmission by a Dutchman, Huub van Doorne
Cruise control by Toyota

First Hybrid car produced was by Honda

First Hydrogen vehicle by Mazada

First electro-hydraulic brakes by Mercedes

Not trying to start an argument, just make some points.

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mike2366

01-11-2008 09:17:58

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to J Schwiebert, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

Mike in Ohio said: (quoted from post at 04:55:53 01/11/08) Or maybe just go get the oil we have here.

Now that would be a great idea..... 8) Too bad the treehuggers have all that stopped :x

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ChrisB

01-11-2008 09:08:20

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

Good time to invest in land in Vermont I hear.

Link

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dhermesc

01-11-2008 08:56:50

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to jdemaris, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

"If you remember from history,this was a fairly miserable country around the turn of the century from the 1800s to the 1900s.In the early 1900s there was a union war.They had little kids working in factories.Thats what happens if you let corporations run the government."

If you knew your history you'd know that every industrialized nation in the world was doing the same thing. Not to mention in the 19th century the majority of the nation lived on farms with only a small portion of the population in livign in cites. In the more backwards nations the children were sold as slaves and starvation was common.

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trucker40

01-12-2008 18:05:09

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to dhermesc, 01-11-2008 08:56:50

Well a lot more people lived on farms,couldnt really find a percent of people on farms in 1900 compared to cities.However it did say in the Google search that 76% of the Immigrants in 1900 were in urban areas.I think I remember that it was something like 10% that lived on farms.Probly some remember better what it was like. If you went back in time farming,you could survive without a tractor,electricity,central air and heat,but you would work a lot more.You would live with animals practically,which has its good points.You would have a shorter life,most men died at 46.We have the best country about in those days and die at 46,I guess because cities were full of crime and pollution.Why would you want to go back? Whats the big idea of tearing our country up,and kind of like going back in time to when CORPORATIONS ran the government again?Whatever country you live in? I know when some other"politicians"were running things(well maybe it was the same ones)in the 70s there was a bunch of them running around saying there was a shortage of oil.I dont need a history book for that.I had to wait in line to get gas a few times.Plus it doubled in price overnight,then the price of everything went up overnight. Well if you are going to say that its allright that our country be torn up for NAFTA,and we should let corporations run it into the ground until we are slaves again,and you wont have a car to drive because you dont want farmers making ethanol out of their corn because we are going to run out of feed which is another lie,I dont know what to tell you. I think there is a lot that can happen before we throw the country away and turn it into Ameramexada or something where we are all slaves.

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trucker40

01-11-2008 08:15:46

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

It looks like NAFTA among other things plays a part in this too.Seems like our economy in the United States is being destroyed by breaking us with high energy prices at the same time the industry is leaving to make us more like Mexico.Thats what it looks like anyway,besides a lot more things.If you remember from history,this was a fairly miserable country around the turn of the century from the 1800s to the 1900s.In the early 1900s there was a union war.They had little kids working in factories.Thats what happens if you let corporations run the government.

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Mark - IN.

01-11-2008 16:49:16

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to trucker40, 01-11-2008 08:15:46

I honestly truly wonder if the reason that our politicians not only turn a blind eye on illegal aliens is that we let ourselves become so dependent on foreign oil as opposed to domestic, one of our largest sources from Mexico. If we put the brakes on illegal aliens which really wouldn't be that hard to do if the politicians really wanted to, but the second they do that Mexico jacks their oil prices to the sky?

Our nation never should've been allowed to get backed into such a corner of "foreign" oil dependency, and most politicians, both sides of the political aisle that legislated such dependency should be horse whipped in front of the Rotunda.

No politics involved here, just the future of our nation, once the strongest on Earth. I love my nation, hate politicians.

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greygoat

01-11-2008 08:12:27

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

The price of oil is pegged to the worth of the
dollar. The dollar isn"t worth much now, on
the world market, compared to the Euro,for
instance. The Canadaian dollar was worth 67
cents, but is now worth a U.S. dollar, so they
come here to buy. Since our dollar is worth
less the people with oil want more of them
for their product, and prices, to us, go up.

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Mark - IN.

01-11-2008 16:40:04

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to greygoat, 01-11-2008 08:12:27

I fell asleep one evening with the AM alarm clock radio on, and woke up to some economist talking about all of this. He said that once the price of crude gets to about $130 per barrel, out US dollar (based upon gold) will crash, and then be replaced with the new North American currency, the "Amero" (based upon silver) which he said is already being minted in Denver. At that point, our North American currency will be more competetive with the Euro. The folks hit hardest will be Canada because their currency has higher value, and Mexico will prosper because they will be automatically elevated to the same as the US and Canada. About 2 months ago, former Mexican President Vincente Fox was on Larry King, and he said that the Amero will replace the US dollar within 10 years (did he let a planned cat slip out of the bag?), but this economist predicted that it'd be less than a year.

The whole thing so depressed me that I couldn't go back to sleep. So, I've got $$$ saved in the bank that becomes worthless when this all happens? Life savings go right out the window? If that happens across the board, I've gotta think that every politician in DC had better get on the space shuttle and leave planet Earth, because won't be a rock big enough for any of them to hide under.

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trucker40

01-12-2008 18:20:04

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Mark - IN., 01-11-2008 16:40:04

Yeah I stumbled over something about that the other day on the internet about the Amero. I dont know what to think about it except this,its not going to be good for us.Plus the people running this country seem to be acting like they can just do this and not even ask us about it. With the price of our dollar being less than 50 cents now compared to the English Pound,wouldnt that mean that oil,which is traded in dollars,is only at 50 dollars a barrel,when they say it goes to 100 dollars a barrel? Im going to look but I think the dollar is somewhere around 40 cents to an English Pound.

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bbelltn

01-12-2008 18:31:49

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to trucker40, 01-12-2008 18:20:04

I thought oil is traded in euro. If dollar is now only worth half of the price of a euro then you are correct. We are paying twice what countrys wich the euro are.

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trucker40

01-12-2008 20:30:31

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to bbelltn, 01-12-2008 18:31:49

I looked it up our Dollar is worth 67 cents to a Euro.Plus Petro dollars is what oil was exchanged in before the invasion of Iraq.At that time oil went to 40 Euros a barrel. This is fast getting more complicated than I want to try and think about,but if its at 100 dollars a barrel its only worth 67 Euros.Or our dollar is only 67% of a Euro. In the real world where right was right and wrong was wrong a bunch of "politicians"would have a lot of splainin to do.

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trucker40

01-12-2008 18:27:14

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to trucker40, 01-12-2008 18:20:04

The dollar is 51 cents to the British Pound,it got as low as 47 cents in November.So it came up 4 cents since November.

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Jeff-oh

01-11-2008 05:59:32

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

Nothing gets cheaper.

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Tradititonal Farmer

01-11-2008 06:17:05

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Jeff-oh, 01-11-2008 05:59:32

Not true commidity prices go up and down all the time so do stocks.Housing is off 10 to 20 percent from a year and a half ago.the cost of borrowing money (interest) is about 1/3 what it was in the late 1970s.Computers cost far less than they did when they first came out

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Jeff-oh

01-11-2008 09:32:15

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Tradititonal Farmer, 01-11-2008 06:17:05

What you point out is not necessarly true either.

Computers are cheeper because of cost of development and machernery can be amorotized over more units, or productivity gains makeing cost of production go down, passing the saving on to the consumer, or competition reduces the profet margin on a product.

As for housing the cost of materials is still going up. If you want to build a new house it's cost is not going down.

I will agree with you though... One thing that is going down are wages... US companies have suppressed the purching power of the middle class.

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Tradititonal Farmer

01-11-2008 05:36:27

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

Well its the 1970s all over again around 1978 grain was high and oil was high and almost everyone was saying the price would never go down on either for the same reason everyone is using now.By 1980 the price on both had collasped.The price will go down when those buying it can't pay.How long will the oil producing countrys keep taking dollars from a "bankrupt US"? Not my words but the words of the Comtroller General of the US earlier this week.Better expensive oil you can afford than cheap oil you can't afford.

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dhermesc

01-11-2008 06:27:46

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Tradititonal Farmer, 01-11-2008 05:36:27

"By 1980 the price on both had collasped."

Grain prices collapsed because some moron enacted a grain embargo followed immediately by economic policy (high interest rates) that pushed the international value of the US dollar through the roof. This made our grain more expensive at $2.00 a bushel in 1981 then it was in 1978 at $4.00 a bushel on the international markets.

28 years later it appears that the US has finally abandoned the strong dollar policy that has given imports a price advantage in US markets.

Oil prices didn't start their slide until 1986. They didn't officially "collapse" until 1997. In the late 1990s the low prices destroyed the small well producers in the US and wiped out the domestic market except for the big players. In 2000 the big boys (at home and abroad) decided they could raise pricing without fear of competition.

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Jay (ND)

01-11-2008 00:05:14

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

If the only statistic FA considers is population, you might as well put their prediction in with your collection plate donation.

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Davis In SC

01-10-2008 22:40:28

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

It Ain't ever gonna get cheaper.. 8^( . We are just going to have to accept high fuel prices.. I have cut my driving back by over 50%.. I just tell customers that I have to consolidate trips....

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Hadji

01-10-2008 20:08:54

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

The reason the people of China and India don't have cars is that they can't afford them when they make 20 cents an hour making junk for Wal Mart. Actually in India they only make 15 cents an hour according to a documentary I saw on the subject.

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36 coupe

01-11-2008 02:35:46

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Hadji, 01-10-2008 20:08:54

Saw a bit on tv where a fellow in India puts 2 kids and his wife on his motorcycle.They already have plenty of traffic now so if they move up to cars they will use more fuel.China is headed in the same direction.Trucks that haul trash from MA to a landfill here use 100 gallons of fuel to make the round trip.That fuel would heat my house for a month.I drive my truck about 3000 miles per year.Went for grain yesterday,very little traffic on the road.Country stores are closing in small towns creating more gasoline use.Truckers waste much fuel idling at truck stops, over 1 billion gallons a year.A lot of fuel is just wasted.

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trucker40

01-12-2008 21:03:00

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to 36 coupe, 01-11-2008 02:35:46

Trucks may idle,but what do you want us to do freeze in the winter,roast in the summer?Since we finally have trucks that have a decent sleeper and heater,with a good suspension,better roads,theres less accidents,and its about 80% or more likely that a 4 wheeler caused the wreck if there is one between a car and truck.You dont want people driving trucks that cannot sleep because of no air in the summer or no heat in the winter.Try looking up in the sky just before dark,there is a lot more planes up there all the time.I bet they burn more fuel than all the trucks.Maybe if those people in those planes had to take a train we could save a few billion gallons.

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RobMD

01-10-2008 20:03:54

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

ugh. Worst part of it is that china and india will not use alternative energy first. They first have to go through their industrial revolution, and by the time they enter the computerized age, they will have used up all the oil on earth. Then you've got nukes flying all over the place.

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Vern-MI

01-11-2008 02:37:08

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to RobMD, 01-10-2008 20:03:54

Energy and raw material shortages and supposedly ever increasing polution by man seems to be the issue of the day. How come we never hear from any of the other attention lovers that there is an overpopulation issue? The attention lovers of today should be going after a Nobel Peace Prize for a book or plan to limit and even reduce the world's population through birth control.

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jason, NW Ontario

01-11-2008 06:16:50

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Vern-MI, 01-11-2008 02:37:08

China has had institutionalized birth control for over 30 years already - one child per family, yet their population still grows. Communist China is making money the same way the U.S. did in the 19th century - making cheap junk without quality or safety in mind, and burning high-sulfur coal. Can you blame them? It worked to make a U.S. an economic power. Heck, the U.S. still burns lots of high-sulfur coal, and Bush wants to burn even more.
Future fuel prices in North America will be more stable than the rest of the world, because most fuel here is supplied by Canada. Check out fuel prices in most of Europe - we have nothing to whine about.

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rodgernbama

01-10-2008 19:31:16

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 19:24:46

Yes the developing countries are going to be using more oil as they put more cars on the road which will make prices continue to rise. That is why we need to be in an all out assault mode to find alternative renewable energy sources.

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Mike in Ohio

01-10-2008 19:55:53

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to rodgernbama, 01-10-2008 19:31:16

Or maybe just go get the oil we have here.

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Spook

01-10-2008 22:10:04

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Mike in Ohio, 01-10-2008 19:55:53

Every article I have seen that estimates reserves in all of the US, including offshore Florida, Alaska, anywhere is a very small percentage of our consumption. Last I saw, under 10%. We consume 25% of the worlds oil with 5% of the population. And even if we had the oil, we lack the refining capacity to refine it. The easy thing is to blame those pesky envionmentalists. The reality is that refining is a manufacturing business that is being offshored like every other manufacturing business. The oil industry has shut down a lot of refineries over the last 20 years. You can't blame the EPA for all of them, the oil guys opened up new refineries overseas with cheaper labor.

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dhermesc

01-11-2008 06:37:46

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Spook, 01-10-2008 22:10:04

Actually the US and Canada have massive oil reserves. The oil sands and shale have reserves estimated to be nearly half the oil reserves of OPEC - thats in addition to the convential oil fields. The process of extracting that oil requires a commodity pricing structure that supports $50 a barrel oil.

Even though the international market supports $90.00+ a barrel oil today, oil companies remember that just 10 years ago oil was at $12.00 a barrel after reaching prices of over $80.00 a barrel in the 1980s and early 1990s. Before they sink billions of dollars to construct the new refineries needed to process oil from those reserves they need to make sure they aren't going to be bankrupt when OPEC drops their prices again.

Link

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CenTexFarmall

01-10-2008 20:11:38

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to Mike in Ohio, 01-10-2008 19:55:53

I think it's better to import as much oil as we can for as long as possible. Then when the middle east and everyone else is running dry, we'll have some within our own borders. Think about it.

We want to save our stuff for when everyone is having to fight for the last of it.

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in-too-deep

01-11-2008 14:07:59

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to CenTexFarmall, 01-10-2008 20:11:38

Bingo. You've got it right about using our reserves last.

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KRUSS1

01-11-2008 06:21:09

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to CenTexFarmall, 01-10-2008 20:11:38

In the long term I would like to see Canada leave a bit more of our oil reserves untapped. might be selling too much too cheap to "you know who" right now. Not likely to happen though, because the oil industry is what is keeping oue economy as good (or bad) as it is.

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noncompos

01-10-2008 21:28:55

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to CenTexFarmall, 01-10-2008 20:11:38

Hmmmmm...fascinating...would that mean everyone in the world would get together to attack us, and leave divvying up the spoils until afterward???
(Just an academic question for me; I"m 76, so I probably won"t be here...altho my wife sometimes comments I"ll never have to worry about being cold...).

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T-Rev

01-11-2008 09:32:06

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Re: Future price of fuel in reply to noncompos, 01-10-2008 21:28:55

I say run the rest of the world dry first and then use our own to run the 69 camaros and Farmall M's. America has by FAR led the world in automotive and machinery innovation the last 100 yrs. and the Europeans tend to come up with and share good new ideas like us. The Japanese wait for Americans to get good at something and then try to improve it. As far as autos go the US(including foreign brands engineered and made here) is getting way ahead on alternative fuels, and we are pretty close to breaking something really useful out.
One thing that makes me mad is when everyone complains about the big 3. Most everything worth inventing auto wise originated in American cars the last 100 yrs. I think it will work out fine for us in all areas, auto, power, machinery and inputs if we continue to innovate.

Trevor

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