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Tractor Talk Discussion Forum

Anybody Dabble With The Futures Markets?

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super99

10-09-2007 18:15:03




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Storage is going to be a problem this year, not enough of it. I have a 50X80 metal Quonset style building that I could take most of the machinery out of and put corn in till spring. Lots of hassle, but would probably work. I have heard people talk about selling cash grain at harvest and buying it back on the furures market. Anyone doing this, how does it work? Know very little about this, not even enough to be dangerous. Any thoughts? Chris

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Oldmax

10-10-2007 06:13:03




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 Re: Anybody Dabble With The Futures Markets? in reply to super99, 10-09-2007 18:15:03  
I feel about the futures mkt like Mr Bailey did There is a FOOL BORN EVERY MIN any one would have more luck gambling in lottery than wasting their money in the futures mkt.



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NEsota

10-09-2007 22:32:46




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 Re: Anybody Dabble With The Futures Markets? in reply to super99, 10-09-2007 18:15:03  
From 74 to 86 I worked as a commodity futures representative. That does not make my ideas about where the market is going to go, any more valid that anyone else’s. Since being out of the trade these twenty some years my trading record is better than it was when I was in the business. A part of the reason is that I have been in the market only when I felt strongly about where prices were going. Much of the time I was not in the market because of not paying attention to it or for other reasons not having to do with what I might have perceived, if I had studied it.

From your question, I assume that you think corn is going to go up and that because you have it to sell you want to sell at a higher price. You may be correct, it may go higher or it could go lower. I have not had a position in corn in several years but have been watching the market a little. With two or three phone calls I could take a position. I am not sure that it would be on the long side. Selling your crop and taking a long futures position in corn to off-set your sale may be the right or it could be wrong. You might be better off just selling at what you can get now and looking ahead to having another crop to sell next year. You might also consider selling next years crop now. If you have not been in futures before, rather than working with a large portion of your crop, it might be good to first take a small position. This would allow you to learn about the mechanics of the transaction and let you experience what being in the futures market is like. Since you raise corn and presuming most of the people you talk with want it to go up, you probably have developed a bullish bias. Remember there is always another crop of corn that is going to be harvested somewhere in the world in the next six months and yields are improving.
The Chicago Board of Trade is where corn trades. www.cbot.com You can get information there. Below is a link to a long term price chart on corn. Please note the price peaks in the past have been of short duration.

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John (C-IL)

10-09-2007 18:54:25




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 Re: Anybody Dabble With The Futures Markets? in reply to super99, 10-09-2007 18:15:03  
I've used the futures, but if you need to decide what your goal is in regard to the three pricing components, futures, basis and flat price. If all you are concerned about is a better flat price you should contract ahead for sale at a later date, this strategy will also get you a decent basis gain at this time.

If you are looking to take advantage of an increase in the futures market you might be better off buying a put that is out of the money. Doing that you would only be risking the price of the put.

Figure the cost of storage and interest on the money that you are going to store in the machine shed plus the handling cost, shrink and management risk and figure that cost against the cost of the put.

I've studied this stuff for 20 years and am not a professional, there is no simple answer or single strategy. I do think that unless you are already set up to store the grain you would be ahead to move it to market and own it on paper with some hedging strategy.

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randallinMo

10-10-2007 07:47:34




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 Re: Anybody Dabble With The Futures Markets? in reply to John (C-IL), 10-09-2007 18:54:25  
John, please let me respond to your statement about buying the put. If he wants to take advantage of an INCREASE in the market AFTER he sells the grain he should buy a "call" option. If he does not sell the grain and is concerned about the market going "down" then he should buy the "put" option.
I am a registered Commodity Broker and all my work centers around marketing grain for grain farmers. I DO NOT KNOW WHAT THE MARKET IS GOING TO DO, but would be happy to answer any questions. Please be aware there is always risk associated with the futures market.

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John (C-IL)

10-10-2007 10:05:20




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 Re: Anybody Dabble With The Futures Markets? in reply to randallinMo, 10-10-2007 07:47:34  
Yep Randall, I caught that too and this forum doesn't let you go back and correct your mistakes. Good catch, thank you.



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