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It's all Allan's fault!

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TheRealRon

08-26-2004 11:10:24

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Allan has a way of asking thought provoking questions. The one this morning about 2wd/4wd got a lot of responses along the lines of "I have to plant when I have to plant even if my field is under water".

First, let me say I realize everyone has a different operation. Not trying to throw stones here. But I will pose a question...

You have a per acre break even point based on expected crop price and yield. It's a cold, wet spring. You do a cost analysis and determine that your yield will be down say 20%, wiping out any potential profit. Yes, I know, crop prices may be higher (or lower). But let's stick to the 2 choices:

1) You plant and make no profit.

2) You don't plant and make no profit.

What do you do?

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TheRealRon

08-27-2004 02:45:47

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Thanks to all! in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

I really learned something from all your responses. Seems as if there are three types of farming...

1) "Las Vegas" farming... I close my eyes and roll the dice.

2) Hobby farming... I don't care if I make any money, I'm a farmer.

3) Farming as a business... I'm in this to make a profit.

Again, thanks!

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buickanddeere

08-26-2004 16:47:59

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

If it that that cold,wet and late I would just broadcast small grain and harrow it in a bit. Keeps the weeds down and may turn enough yield to pay for the diesel and seed. True there is a point of not spending 10 dollars to make 8 dollars.

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Steve(OR)

08-26-2004 15:55:08

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

As any accountant will tell you "the business man" got it right. If you cover your variable costs you plant. If you don't cover your variable costs, and see no hope to cover both your variable and fixed costs in the future you find a way to dump your fixed costs and get out of that portion of your business. All you guys that would plant because you are farmers are really just farmers getting ready to go out of business.

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Indydirtfarmer

08-26-2004 14:16:35

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

I planted several fields this year that were far wetter than I"d have liked. I could have waited. I didn"t. As it turned out, the spring got wetter, and wetter. I got all my corn in by the 1st of May, Soybeans out by 10th of June. Both are "target dates" for this area. With the heavy rains that followed, I wouldn"t have done so well. I"m looking at slightly better than average crops for our area this year. Not everyone here is. Might be dumb luck, who knows. With most everyone working on an "economy of scale" farming system now-a-days, you have to go on schedule....ideal conditions or not. This isn"t a hobby. I can"t wait "till next year to get a dry field to plant. If you have twice the amount of equipment you need, and only enough lland to plant it all in a couple days, you can set and wait. Every farmer I"ve ever known that set out a year because of weather, is out of the business. Sometimes you just gotta force the issue. John

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thurlow

08-26-2004 13:43:39

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

It's not that simple; as suggested by Paul, Tim, the sprigger and others; if you're a farmer, you plant. In my part of the world (West Tennessee), almost no one owns all the land they work. The landlords expect (and are gonna collect) either their cash rent or their crop-share rent. The FIRST year you fail to plant is the LAST year you farm..... .

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Shane

08-26-2004 16:13:26

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to thurlow, 08-26-2004 13:43:39

Quote: "The FIRST year you fail to plant is the LAST year you farm..... ."

Funny thing about that these days. We have several farmers in the area who kinda forget to pay all or any rent yet the landlords still let them farm. Reason: Well if I don't let them farm again this year I won't get paid for last year. Three years later they still haven't gotten paid and now are owed for four years. Seems stupid to me and is really just plain wrong on those farmers part. Sucks being honest and always paying my bills in full regardless of my bottom line.

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Paul in Mich

08-26-2004 17:37:19

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to Shane, 08-26-2004 16:13:26

Shane, I think you are going a bit far by labeling farmers who cant pay their land rent a being dishonest. I'm not saying that there aren't some who fit that mold, but the vast majority of farmers are honest, hardworking men who by whatever reason, find themselves in a situation where the bank wont extend them anymore credit, they cant pay the landowner, and yes, the landowners have been known to extend the rent until next year hoping that they can recover some of their loss just as the guy who farms it hopes the same. I know of a few farmers in our area who are in that situation, and I can tell you that they spend a lot of sleepless nights wondering how they can pay off their obligations, simply because they ARE honest, and it bothers them to be in debt to the extent that they are. farming isn't for the weak of heart, as no business on the planet requires the investment on a yearly basis proportionate to the return as does farming. It isnt unusual to sink a half million dollars in seed, fertilizer, herbicides, pesticides, fuel, and crop insurance each year before they sell the first bushel. That isnt even takijng into consideration land rent, equipment payments, building payments, workmans comp, employee's salaries, and many other misc. items necessary to run a farming operation. Yes, there are landowners who havent gotten paid in a couple years, but most of them have farmed and know that running one person off the land and replacing him with someone else isnt always the answer.

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Shane

08-26-2004 21:56:55

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to Paul in Mich, 08-26-2004 17:37:19

I didn't mean to label all of the farmers who can't pay their bills. I just meant to point out the bad ones who just simply don't pay. I know of a few here and everyone in the area knows about them too yet they still get to "rent" a lot of ground for free. I know what it is like to worry about paying our rent. But we have never missed one and would go belly up paying our land lords before going on and not paying.

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Allan in NE

08-26-2004 17:36:56

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to Shane, 08-26-2004 16:13:26

Hey Shane,

It is always harder to determine character from the inside out. We on the outside sure see what ya are made of tho.

Allan

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kyhayman

08-26-2004 13:35:48

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

I think its a good question. One I use in farm management trainings all the time. As far as current application to me, it is pretty much a non issue. Only crops I plant are hay crops, soybeans, and small grains for silage. If I get delayed on planting wheat I got to rye. For hay crops, I'll normally wait until I get weather or use an annual. With tobacco (and I assume other row crops) its different. There is not much that pains me more than to have to depend on a Federal Crops Ins check. If tobacco isnt set (transplanted) by June 15 there is not any crop ins coverage.

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Jonathan

08-26-2004 12:53:02

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

Ok, I have got to respond to this post too!. Each year, nobody really knows just how things are going to turn out until the end when it's over. I thought this might be a pretty good year for squash and planted a whole field of them, but then it rained all summer and they didn't amount to much, so I'm out my seed and fertilizer money, plus my time and fuel, but oh well, atleast I tried and what happened was out of my hands and if I hadn't planted, well then I would have been wondering how it would have turned out. I did learn a few things, as this was my first year of trying to grow squash in a field instead of a manure pile and this next year I can use what I learned to do better. Secondly, what use is unused land?, and third, this could have been the most wonderful year in history, but that doesn't stop unexpected things such as pests from destroying my crop, like the invasion of army worms in corn just a couple of years ago that wiped out some peoples corn crops or even natural disasters such as high winds from flattening my crop. There is always a risk in raising crops, and you won't get ahead if you don't try. I had people asking me a month ago if I thought my squash was going to do alright, and I told them I don't know at this point, and I'd be able to tell them when it was over, but now with just a couple months left of the growing season and the plants aren't doing so great, I'm afraid I pretty much know.

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Paul in Mich

08-26-2004 12:33:50

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

Ron, by planting, there is always a chance that you will either make a profit or experience a loss, or break even. If you dont plant, you either operate at a loss or break even, but you cant make a profit. Most farmers rent a lot of ground, and the rent is due whether anything is planted or not. At least if the land is planted, then claims can be made against crop insurance, which if a farmer these days dont carry are playing a game with less odds than Russian Roulette. Crop insurance is very expensive, and is tantamount to physicans and mal practice insurance, but a necessary evil in todays business climate. One of the responders suggested disking wet spots, and that does help in many cases even for no-till operations, but it can be counterproductive if it rains after a field is disked and planting occurrs. Bottom line is that not planting is not even an option to be considered if you are a true farmer. We planted some fields 3 times this year because of flooding and wet ground. Hopefully next year will be different,(better).

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TimFL

08-26-2004 12:26:57

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Silly question in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

This really is a silly question. If you plant you may not make a profit but you might be able to make your payments. Land rent, tractor payments, payroll, etc. If you dont plant you will not make those payments. Your 20% profit premise doesnt hold water. Farming rarely makes a profit anymore anyway but alot of land is rented, alot of tractors are used and alot of people have jobs.

My$.02

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Allan in NE

08-26-2004 12:24:36

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

Ron,

Here's how I always did it:

Always plant on time because then you have more time to spend sitting and waiting for the hail.

Chances are that the crop 'taint a never a gonna make it to harvest anyway, so planiting dates really don't figure into the equation all that much except for your quality time spent in the waiting. :>)

Now, following the hail, the normal playing out of events from that point on (and with the banker's blessing, of course) will somehow govern the rest of your days and ya really won't have to ever worry 'bout such trival things ever again. :>)

Downside to this method is that you find yourself buying a lot of old tractors for some darned reason.

Hmmmm, ain't farming fun?

Signed,

Ole Farm sale Allan

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Mike (WA)

08-26-2004 12:22:20

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

Its a little like the lottery- even though you know the chance of winning is infintesimal, the one sure thing is that if you don"t buy at least one ticket, you can"t win. If crop yields were a precise mathematical proposition, it would be another matter- but everyone"s dad or grandpa has a story of planting a month late, and the rest of the season was perfect, with a bumper yield.

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Txsprigger

08-26-2004 12:08:07

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

Here in Central Tx. 2001 was an exceptionally wet spring, delaying planting later than ever before. Many farmers talked about not planting and taking insurance, but when the landlords got wind of this, most of them told their farmers, "plant something on my farm, or I will get me a new farmer". Ninety-five percent of the fields were planted and the crops turned out half decent in spite of the late start. The fields that did lay fallow did not produce as good the following year, and the insurance money did not work out as well as expected, either.

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The business man

08-26-2004 11:59:31

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

As long as expected income equals expected variable costs, you plant.

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Mike M

08-26-2004 11:56:27

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

Here's one for you. If you got a wet spot in your field if you have a tractor that will pull a disk or plow through this without getting stuck this will break up the soil and let it dry out quicker.

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Shane

08-26-2004 16:02:33

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to Mike M, 08-26-2004 11:56:27

Let me ask this. Don't you always have the tractor big enough to pull through that spot till you get halfway through it and realize you made a bad decision and are now faced with another. So what do you do now? Open it up and go for it or stop and try to back out?

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Coloken

08-26-2004 11:45:35

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to TheRealRon, 08-26-2004 11:10:24

Thats a silly question. Amy farmer knows the answer. Of course you plant...YOUR A FARMER!!

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rustyfarmall

08-26-2004 12:09:20

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to Coloken, 08-26-2004 11:45:35

Coloken, that is my opinion exactly. If a farmer doesn"t plant, it is guaranteed he will not harvest anything.

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Shane

08-26-2004 15:59:22

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Re: It's all Allan's fault! in reply to rustyfarmall, 08-26-2004 12:09:20

Yep! It is the American farmer way, plant it and harvest it regardless of profit. We all know that most years ya lose money anyways so ya might as well have some fun while going broke! It is either that or work in a factory and that is one thing this farm boy ain't doing!

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