I shoulda held more corn and beans

http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/free/news/template1&product=/ag/news/topstories&vendorReference=0353b2fa-34a2-481b-912d-1cb46058ad3a&paneContentId=3030&paneParentId=0

Dave, I am having trouble getting into that. Could you give me a summary?

USDA lowered ending stocks of grain.

Corn will have 75 million bu less.

Beans will have 80 million bu less.

Well, that is their guess....

That will rocket prices up on any weather scare here in the USA; in Brazil; or any buying action by China.

Gonna be interesting.

I'm still waiting on my check from the coop for last October contracts, where I sold for about $3.30 and 8.50..... So you're not alone, Dave.

--->Paul

Yesterday"s Uffda report- beans are up 53 cents this morning. Making my first sale today, for Feb delivery.

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- A cut in the size of both the corn and soybean crops and continued strong ethanol demand for corn and export demand for soybeans resulted in cuts to estimates of the ending stocks of both crops in the latest USDA crop production and supply and demand reports early Tuesday.

The report may be called bullish for both corn and soybeans when trade resumes later this morning.

Corn yields are now forecast at 154.3 bushels per acre, with the crop expected to total 12.540 billion bushels. Ending stocks are now forecast at 827 million bushels, down from 902 m bu in the October report.

USDA cut its forecasts for soybean production to 3.375 billion bushels, down from 3.408 b bu in October, with yields of 43.9 bpa, down from 44.4 bpa a month ago. Ending stocks are now forecast at 185 million bushels, down from 265 m bu forecast a month ago.

USDA said estimated yields are decreased from last month throughout much of the Corn Belt, with the biggest decline forecasted in Missouri, with cuts also noted in South Dakota and Nebraska.

Soybean production is down 1 percent from October but still at a record high. The largest decreases in yield from last month are expected in Kansas, Nebraska, New Jersey and South Dakota. Forecasted yields are at record highs in Illinois, Louisiana, New York and Wisconsin.

Supply and Demand Tables

In addition to cuts in ending stocks for corn and soybeans in the monthly U.S. supply and demand tables, USDA's World Ag Outlook Board also cut ending stocks for wheat.

For corn, USDA cut production 124 million bushels, and cut feed and residual 100 m bu and exports by 50 m bu, but raised corn for ethanol by 100 m bu, leaving 2010/11 ending stocks at 827 million bushels, the lowest since 1995/96. Present levels of ending stocks represent 6.2 percent of projected usage. In 1995/96, carryout dropped to 5 percent of estimated usage.

In the soybean balance sheet, the most notable change was in exports, which USDA raised by 50 million bushels to 1.570 billion bushels. That resulted in a cut in ending stocks of 80 million bushels.

In its wheat tables, USDA cut production by 18 million bushels, raised imports 10 m bu, resulting in a cut in ending stocks of about 5 m bu. Exports were left at 1.250 b bu.

World Estimates

USDA lowered its estimates for world wheat and corn ending stocks and left soybean ending stocks near unchanged.

In the corn tables, world corn production was cut 1.1 million metric tons, with the smaller U.S. crop partly offset by an increase in Chinese production of 2 MMT to 168 MMT.

Wheat world ending stocks are seen falling 2.2 million metric tons with the largest cuts 3.4 MMT in China and 1 MMT in Russia.

Revisions to Small Grains Summary

In addition to the monthly report, USDA's National Ag Statistics Service issued some small revisions to its annual small grains summary, initially reported September 30. The revisions came as USDA resurveyed producers in North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Washington and Oregon because harvest was not complete when the first survey was conducted. Based on updated information, USDA said it made several changes to the estimates published in the Small Grains 2010 Summary. Because unharvested production is a component of on-farm stocks, changes were made to the Sep. 21 on-farm stocks levels comparable with the production adjustments as well.

Crop Production report link: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) link: http://www.usda.gov/…


U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2010-11
Nov Avg High Low Oct 2009-10
Corn 12.540 12,545 12,685 12,228 12,664 13,110
Soybeans 3.375 3,426 3,483 3,350 3,408 3,359
Grain Sorghum 338 331 337 325 337 383

U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2010-11
Nov Avg High Low Oct 2009-10
Corn 154.3 154.4 156.1 152.0 155.8 164.7
Soybeans 43.9 44.6 45.3 43.8 44.4 44.0

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2010-11
Nov Avg High Low Oct 2009-10
Corn 827 845 1,048 699 902 1,708
Soybeans 185 243 340 150 265 151
Grain Sorghum 39 36 42 32 38 41
Wheat 848 855 905 750 853 976

WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million Metric Tons)
2010-11 2009-10
Nov Oct Nov Oct
Wheat 172.51 174.66 195.40 196.53
Corn 129.16 132.36 147.95 148.06
Soybeans 61.41 61.42 60.4 60.44

WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons)
2010-11 2009-10
Nov Oct Nov Oct
Australia wheat 24.0 23.0 22.5 22.5
Canada wheat 22.2 22.2 26.9 26.9

Argentine corn 25.0 25.0 22.5 22.5
China corn 168.0 166.0 158.0 155.0

Brazil soybeans 67.5 67.0 69.0 69.0
Argentine soybeans 52.0 50.0 54.5 54.5

I contracted more at what i thought was gonna be a good price. still have some Im holdin for cash price but more beans than corn. The bad thing about grain prices goin up is that it will raise all your input costs but when the market goes back down our input costs wont go down with them. Just went to a chemical and seed meeting this afternoon. The seed company was tellin us how they presold some N in the spring at I think he said 2.35 and this fall already over 3 bucks with it expecting to go higher. Nh3 is going threw the roof due to a plant closing down in the south. All these new traits there comin out with for corn and beans are great except for the extra price we pay per bag for all the reaserch to get these traits. A guy really has to be careful about his marketing strategies or your really gonna be in trouble. So far Iv seemed to do alright Im still doin what I love to do.

Yep Paul. Been there done that myself on those prices.

By law they only have 30 days from delivery to pay you.

Gary