Why is it so hard to estimate bbls of oil?

IA Leo

Member
They knew the column height and density of stuff that held the oil in and the same data when they couldn't hold it in. They know the crossectional area of the pipe and the pressure of seawater at the floor. A hydraulic engineer should be able to compute the flow rate, knowing viscosity and density of the oil, with the wide open pipe. What we need now is to lift up the bedrock to take the pressure off the the precious oil but not so much to start draining the Gulf. Being a 1000 miles away simplifies the problem I suppose! Leo
 
;)

The compressed natural gas is going to muddy up your calculations. No one really knows the composition of the stuff coming out the hole.

Add in the drill pipe still stuck in there, and is it coming from just the drill pipe, or around the whole casing, or both....

Probably why so much leaks out past the cap/ vents where they tried to seal on to the old pipe. The natural gas issue, it wants to expand & freeze as it comes out the hole.

Of course, BP really wouldn't want to say how much is leaking, keep the number small. They always say it in barrels I note, makes it a smaller number. Lot of others list it in gallons - it makes it look like a bigger number. Depends on what you want to prove.

--->Paul
 
BP knows what coming out, and you hear stupid stories of they're wanting to limit their liability. It's their mess and it's everywhere so how do you limit your liability by lying about the volume, other than their bought off congress people. Another stupid liability story is they didn't want their workers to wear hazmat suits because it would look too hazardous. But sick people doesn't look bad?
 
BP has a vested interest in minimizing the extent of their screw-up. And had they been able to cap the well quickly, no one would have been any wiser.
 
Kinda hard to lift the bedrock of the ocean. There's nothing to pull against.

And the flow has been estimated, just as you suppose it could be. NPR did exactly that a few weeks ago, forcing the Coast Guard and BP to admit their low numbers were bogus.
 
If there wasn't gas in it, you could just figure out the diameter of the damaged pipe and estimate a velocity from the video's and some math and you'd have rough estimate if the pipe isn't too damaged.

Because of the gas the math becomes so complicated it is impossible to get an accurate answer and the best guess is terrible until you get more detailed information on the damaged pipe shape and how much oil vs gas. Thats why the experts opinions have been all over the place.
 
I wonder if they are guesstimating low when its time to pay the royalties to the gov. on the oil that has been extracted from wells all accross the country?
 
Probably because the official estimates have been coming from NOAA. I'd tend to believe BP's estimate before I believed the government.
 
Why would the government have any reason to minimize the amount. It works to their advantage when it comes to demonizing 'big oil' and calling for more government regulation.

And to expect the filth of the media to 'report' anything accurately, why would they, when their whole 'profession' is based on sensationalism and inventing or distorting the facts, to suit their political agenda.
 
As an addendum, the elitist filth of the media would have you believe that they are "experts in everything", when, in fact, they are "knowlegable about nothing".

Their whole 'profession' is composed of overpaid, airheaded, idiots, who could do nothing better with their lives, and now think that they should be respected because of their arrogance and elitism.
 
Paul,

Did you notice when they talk about the amount of oil LEAKED, it's in barrels. When they talk about the amount of oil CAPTURED, it's usually in GALLONS...
 
It works to their advantage when it comes to demonizing 'big oil' and calling for more government regulation.

Leaving them to their own devices has been working REEEEEEEEEEAL well, hasn't it?

I suppose we could just vote with our wallets and not buy gas to make them play nice, right?
 
Conspiracy theory or not. This blowout may well have initially the classic cutting of corners, saving a few bucks. Inexperienced staff rushing to meet a deadline etc.
The circus after the blowout indicates either some people making decisions have only half a clue at best. Or they are trying to make the situation worse.
I've seen situations in the nuclear industry were some desk bound engineer comes up with a totally unworkable plan.
 
[i:654c4848f0]"some people making decisions have only half a clue at best"[/i:654c4848f0]

As you might recall from the "Have they plugged the hole yet Daddy" address, the former junior Senator from Illinois said "But make no mistake. BP is operating at our direction. Every key decision and action they take must be approved by us in advance. I just designated Admiral Thad Allen who has nearly four decades experience responding to such disasters, as the national incident commander. And if he orders BP to do something to respond to this disaster, they are legally bound to do it. "
 
MarkB_MI has it right.
[i:654c4848f0]BP has a vested interest in minimizing the extent of their screw-up. And had they been able to cap the well quickly, no one would have been any wiser[/i:654c4848f0]

If the spill could have been stopped sooner the fine would have been less with lower barrels per day estimates.
The larger the leak the greater the fine.

This was explained on a local radio station by a LSU proffessor.
 
Have a few friends in the industry down there.

Folks down there are wondering if BP isn't deliberately sabotaging themselves. Seal the leak, external_link pulls the lease.

Keeps leaking till the relief well is drilled, BP pumps oil till the cows come home because the relief well is now part of the mitigation plan.
 

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