Where's the Beef

Larry B 1486 · Nov 17, 2009

I am usually on the IH site but did not where to post this. I custom bale hay for a living and usually bale, well use to, 6000 plus round bales a year. In this aera, the cattle heards are getting less and less every year. For the last five years my nunber of bales are dropping as well due to the number of cattle left. In the last five years, the number of cows have droped 60% in a 200 mi radius of this aera, southern Illinois. Is this happing in other places as well? I know the US is importing beef from mexico, canada and austruala. I guess the next place will be china. Whats going on? Cheaper beef I guess. Fertlizer and grain prices has also effected the cattle market and grain subisities making farmers planting pasture land. Just wondering if the cattle is disappearing in other parts of the country as well.

Wesley Stephens · Nov 17, 2009

In our area, there is an abundance of cheap coastal bermuda hay from the hog farms that are so common in southeastern NC and cattle herds are large, if not increasing. We finish out beef and sell it direct, but we do not have a large herd.

Tom in TN · Nov 17, 2009

Larry,

I don't know what's causing it, but I do know two things.

First, the price of beef is lower in the grocery stores.

Second, I'm getting much less for the calves that I sell at the sale barn. I have a relatively small cow/calf operation in Middle Tennessee. I sell black Angus calves that are seven months old. They range from 450 lbs. to 550 lbs. I'm getting about $.75 to $.80 per pound. Two years ago, those calves were selling for $1.00 - $1.10 per pound.

No matter what the market does, the "smart" people have some lame excuse for what the market is doing. I don't know what's going on.

Tom in TN

Dean · Nov 17, 2009

The next place was to be Argentina, Charlie, but with the dollar in free fall, we will likely soon import nothing but from China, where the Yuan is artificially tied to the dollar.

Dean

RodinNS · Nov 17, 2009

It's about at the point where there will be no cows left here before long if it doesn't turn around. We're down to aout 1/4 of what we used to have 10 years ago. BSE started that ball rolling here, then the cattle cycle started unwinding...
I expect it's going to bottom in the not too distant future. Then... with some luck we may see a price for beef again.

Rod

TGIN · Nov 17, 2009

We moved to our present farm in S.E. IN. in 1973 . The road is about 8 mile long and when we moved here everybody that lived here that had any land farmed it . They ran a few cows , had a few hogs , chickens and raised there tobbacco bases . Now the fences are almost gone on these small farms and there are only 3 of us that have cows any more . Me and one other guy tend the crop ground [ me just some hay ground ] and the pasture ground is growing up , most is to late for bushhoging . The cows ar nt all thats gone around here , it s the farms they ran on that are gone .

Anonymous-0 · Nov 17, 2009

I too used to have a small herd of beef cows but gave it up in the 90's due to falling demand for freezer beef. Beef gets beat up non stop in the media.

kyhayman · Nov 17, 2009

Yes, its happening here too. I also read yesterday that the foal crop was down 20 percent. Dairy cow numbers are down too. Several of my competitors in the hay business are buying cows this fall due to the amount of marginal quality hay they have on hand and prices at or below the cost of production.

High feed costs, unemployment over 10 percent, dairy cow slaughter, etc are all hammering the price of beef. I'd be really surprised if we were importing a lot of beef with the dollar so low. In fact it should turn pretty soon with exports. But, it seems once cattle leave an area they rarely come back.

David from Kansas · Nov 17, 2009

Here is central Kansas, even with declining cattle prices, the price of pasture land, and the price to rent pasture, are still going up. You would think it would be the opposite. I don't think the number of beef cattle in this area varies a great deal, but I don't have any facts to back that up.

hayray · Nov 17, 2009

The beef that gets imported is purchased for low quality use, i.e. canner, cheap ground, tallow to be mixed etc. The U.S. does not produce enough beef to meet consumption. The U.S. fed beef is a much higher quality product then overseas and using Choice beef for all of our consumption would make a fast food meal cost twice as much. Actually however, companies like McDonalds, the largest beef purchaser in the U.S. still serves almost all U.S. beef, I think one or two percent.

Jerry/MT · Nov 17, 2009

There probably isn"t a single factor that you can put your finger on. We"re in a recession and that usually means that people choose to spend their protein dollars on an the low cost alternative, chicken. With the alchohol mandate, a lot of ground that was devoted to fed corn shifted to alchohol production. That forced corn prices up and feeder cattle prices dropped as a result to lowered demmand and increased input cost.
The gross margin for cow calf producers dropped significantly. My neigbor sold his calves last year for a $103/cwt and took $86/cwt this fall. Input costs increased (fuel,fertilizer,vet supplies, feed, etc) People who were just making it at $103/cwt are dead at $86/cwt so they sell the cows and get out. Most of the folks in cattle around here have their ranches paid off and aren"t hurt as much in a down year or two. But the guys that has a marginal operation with high debt is in bad shape.

BCnT · Nov 17, 2009

last five years in Texas,3.5 have been in drought conditions and high fuel/fertilizer/feed prices have shut down alot of ranches...i still got part of my herd of Limosin/Black Angus...already made decision if things aint turned around by june,EVERYTHINGS going under the hammer...tired of supporting all the middle guys.

Where's the Beef

Larry B 1486

Member

Wesley Stephens

Member

Tom in TN

Well-known Member

Dean

Well-known Member

RodinNS

Well-known Member

TGIN

Well-known Member

Anonymous-0

Well-known Member

kyhayman

Well-known Member

David from Kansas

Well-known Member

hayray

Well-known Member

Jerry/MT

Well-known Member

BCnT

Well-known Member

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