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O/T Recession

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Ben Grimes

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Heard that the recession could end in 2009. Well it's 2009 and we should see the end, right? I think the markets would be better if there wasn't all the negativity on the news, or Warren Buffet is only the 2nd richest guy in America. I'm just a young fellow and haven't been through a recession. Is it near the end yet???
 
I can"t imagine that things will be all behind us in another 9 months.

Automotive companies have sourced LOTS of parts in Asia and put american workers out of a job. They are now puzzled why nobody is buying cars. I am not sure that GM and Chrysler will make it without bankruptcy and that will impact suppliers. The trickle down will be felt all over.

I took my 401K out of the market. Not sure when I will get back in.
 
No it is not nearing an end. You have only seen the beginning. The people are broke, the companies are broke, and the gov't is broke. I expect it will take years to overcome this.

We have to bring our manufacturing back home. Throughout history manufacturing and agriculture are the 2 things that build wealth for nations. Manufacturing is all but gone and farming ain't what it once was.
 
No it is not nearing an end. You have only seen the beginning. The people are broke, the companies are broke, and the gov't is broke. I expect it will take years to overcome this.

We have to bring our manufacturing back home. Throughout history manufacturing and agriculture are the 2 things that build wealth for nations. Manufacturing is all but gone and farming ain't what it once was.
 
Funny you should mention 401k....mines been moved to a intrest income fund since Febuary of 2008. Guys at worked laughed at me when I did it....they aren't laughing now...
 
You're at the bottom of a recession when everyone that you hear thinks that it will NEVER get any better. However, you can stay at the bottom for an awful long time and the climb back up can take a while. The best thing to do as an individual is to develop a sane, reasonable, conservative (I don't mean that in the political sense) method of living and handling your finances. Don't pay attention to the doom and gloomers in a recession, nor the sky's-the-limits people when the economy is hot. Make modest and reasonable decisions and you'll weather many storms. Don't follow the herd....the herd is headed to the slaughterhouse, usually.

My 2 cents. Take it for what it is worth.

Christopher
 
I cashed my 401k in last week. I figure if I play my cards right, I can do better speculating on my own than waiting for the market to come back. What was left of it is a heck of a lot safer in passbook savings for the time being.
 
Have always had mine in CD's just don't trust invester's with my money. In the last 40 years I have doubled my money. I have a friend that lost almost all of his in the market. Had over $150,000 the net worth of his stockes are now worth less than $6000 "Talk about Sick".
 
just get rid of your property, get pregnant and have a few kids then join the welfare generation..... No recession there.


Dave
 
Closer you get to retirement the less risky stuff you're supposed to put it into. Sounds like perfect investment advice.

I'm still young, buying stocks and funds with my retirement investment every month. Can pick up a lot right now for cheap.
 
My gut feeling is we are just past the mid point. Even a technical end of the recession wont me its all wine and roses. It simply means that the stock markets are up and GDP is increasing. I'd tend to agree with Bernake, my gut tells me we will look back in a couple of years and see that the recession ended sometime in the 3rd or 4th quarters.

BUT... a recession meeting a technical end doesnt mean things are suddenly better. Unemployment will continue to rise for a quarter or two after the recovery starts. Business and economic cycles follow parabolic or hyperbolic curves. Its a long slide down and a long hill up.

This is worth what you paid for it. I've called the bottom since September, lol. At each technical break I've tried to put money in the market. But, I've kept at it. The dollar is still the worlds reserve currency. In a sense the US is to the world like AIG is to the US. Too big to fail. While countries might decide to dump dollars at some point the fact doesnt change that too many of the worlds biggest economies hold a lot of dollars.
 
I"m still young too(well, sort of I guess, turned 31 over the weekend). The plan was to move everything to the intrest income fund, make my few dollars a day on it, and when the market bottoms out, move it all back in and buy things cheap. Question is....where"s the bottom??? I think when I moved most of my money the dow was around 12 or 13 thousand...
 

I think the last few years have shown a lot "irrational exuberance" in spending, and that "normal" will be a lot "cooler" than what some people have gotten used to.

But, I also know the "speedup" and the current "slowdown" have directly affected almost no one that I know personally. In other words, it really hasn't hit main street out here in the boonies - neither the run-up in housing nor the slowdown now...

I'm really not that worried about the economy per se - everyone has to eat, has to have a place to live, etc, and don't see that crumbling anywhere near the extent it did in the 30's...

What really worries me a lot is the Federal debt! At $35,000 for every man, woman, child, baby in the USA, there is NO WAY that is not a huge thing that all of us should be worried about. And no matter nnalert or nnalert - they just keep spending and spending!

They can't even balance the budget! Much less start working on paying the debt down...

That tidal wave coming is what worries me...


Howard
 
Some manufacturing will eventually return here, but only to a degree and only when the offshore people demand the same incomes and living conditions that we enjoy, hence as expensive to make there as here. The enviromental aspects will finally catch up with them also.
Another sad fact is alot of the 'old low tech' is quickly fading away or gone, and many people are 'just too good' for the old style thing called 'working at it'. I had looked into expanding my welding shop a few years ago, when I looked hard at what people were available and qualified, I backed away. Union wages and rules are a scary thing, if it's going to cost more than it makes, why bother? When you talk about getting some young guy in there to train they want to know where the keyboard and mouse are and if they can leave early Thursday and have Friday off.
No sorry folks we've seen the end of industrial America as we know it. The new emergence if the goverment even allows it will be very different from what we know now. Back in the 80s I came to understand that American will not survive in a service economy, I'm not suprised at all that it took this long for others to wake up to that fact.
 
Local Farm auction here in east central MN on Saturday. Accoding to the way people were attending and bidding, there is no recession! Everything seemed to bring every penny it was worth, and then some. Over 1,000 numbers given out, and more people at the sale than I have ever seen at a local farm sellout. I was amazed.
 
The answer is "it might be near the end".

Need to look at other aspects of the economy and right now the 800 pound gorilla that no one is talking about is interest rates. China wants reassurance on its investment - with doubt comes interest and inflation. With the trillions of dollars the Fed has dumped into the economy inflation has to become a part of econonomy - with inflation comes higher interest rates - couple that with the China Issue (any wonder nnalert went there first?) and higher interest rates are a certainty.

I would say that the US is about half through the "recession" if nothing else happens - but if interest rates double plan on a second dip that goes a lot deeper than than what we've experianced this far.

People claim interest rates won't double but give no reason why (other than it hurts to much to think about it). In 1991 a mortgage at 9%- 10% was common, I had a car financed by Ford credit at 15%, apply those stituations to today's economy and things go south real fast.
 
Casey, I moved 1/3 of mine into a govt bond fund in Feb of 08 also. Wish I had moved it all. But if I put the 1/3 back in at the right time I should be able to make it back. Plus just bought 170 acres which is about half row crop.

I say do the opposite of what everyone else if doing and you will come out OK.

Gene
 
The good news is the Recession will probably be over soon.The bad news is the way the Gov't is now borrowing Trillions and throwing it away and is headed to regulating and taxing busiesses into the ground the Depression will start as soon as the Recession is over.
 
I dont beleive we have hit the half way mark. We havent even started to see the issues that will come from the lost jobs that happened the last few months. Once they are out of savings and unemployment checks are only coveriung living expenses your gonna see alot more defaulted loans and mortgages. I can see interest rates becoming very high in the next 2 years. The farm I bought was built in "82. Good people with good credit and their interest on the mortgage was 22%, my loan is for 4% and 5.9%. I have not been renewing CD"s because I am either gonna invest it in appreciatable purchases or hold it in saving until the higher rates come, they will. I do beleive more people are spending, sure seemed like it Sat night at the pub for prime rib night. Mnut is right, auctions are packed, people are buying stuff up, so I think those that are hurting hard have learned, those that didnt quite hit bottom yet will make it worse for themselves.
 
external_link administration has changed from gloom and doom to rainbows, puppies and bunnies in the past few days. Hallelujah, we're saved!
 
The recession will end when the US federal gov. gives real stimulus packages, like real tax cuts, lays off thousands of federal employees, stops ramming US debt securities down China's neck and GM/Ford stop getting loans from the US government.
 
Nobody is going to invest in the market, and hence help end the recession, if there is constant talk out of DC about raising taxes on business and people who earn enough to invest. You can have all the class envy you want but when you take money out of the pockets of the people who make 50K and up, who would be more apt to invest in stocks and govt bonds, that doesnt leave anyone to invest in the wealth and capital of the nation. Yes, it is rediculous that some CEO makes 3 million in salary (and i dont here any news or lib complaining about a ball player making 14 million over 3 years) but its also rediculous that the new definition of wealthy is if you make 75k (the cutoff for the new tax rebates). Coupled with the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, external_link is fulfilling his promise to redistribute the "wealth".
 
Through all this, I've been wondering why AIG was getting so much more bail out money than anybody else. They're an insurance company- why are they so special? Well, the answer appears to be, "credit default swaps". They, more than anyone else, insured the risk of the packages of mortgages bought and sold by Wall Street. And the scary part is, the default swaps themselves were then packaged as investment instruments and sold; Then, when everything looked like it was going in the tank, Wall Street firms started "shorting" the default swaps packages! That is, "betting" that they would fail!

The big problem here is that by allowing what amounted to unlimited "side bets", the potential liability goes far beyond the lack of security for real estate loans- its in the multi-trillions of dollars- some have estimated there might not be enough money in the world to make good on all of these.

So Uncle Sam will continue to feed money to AIG to make good on defaulting swaps. The only good thing is, there won't be a "run on the bank", because the Wall Street guys know that that would bring them all down. So everybody will keep mum about the real extent of the problem, and if real estate values can be stabilized, a large part of the problem will evaporate overnight.

If you read the link, be sure to also read the comments below it.
Credit Default Swaps
 
Investing in the stock market doesn't do anything to end the recession. In fact people not putting money in the stockmarket and using the cash to buy goods and services (stimulating the economy) would actually do more good.

Instead of dumping $400 a month into your 401k to watch the traders vaporize it into nothing take the $400 and buy tires for you car, cloths for your kids and maybe some work on your house. All of which will do more for the economy than dumping it into the market.
 
i think this 'downturn' is on a schedule. the current administration has it all planned out of when and how bad things will get, then all of a sudden it will all be over and the skies will be clear again. it's all part of the political process to make the sheeple believe in our current 'savior'. what a crock! lies and dirty underhanded deals and money is what it's all about. watch and see.
 
Negativity, deliberate misrepresentation and outright fabrication by the news media continues to suppress certain sectors of the economy. A recent blaring headline, ''10,000 turn out for Los Angeles job fair'' LA county has roughly 11 millon people on the official books, only God knows how many illegals, so 10,000 is 1/10 of 1 percent of the population -- that would not make a very eye catching headline. The present administration requires fear and uncertainty to achieve their goal of creating a totally dependent majority in the USA. The people in power are Marxists, plain and simple, they believe in theories that have ben totally debunked time and time again for 150 years. These people are not all stupid but they are all evil.
 
nnalert saying out of reccession in 2009- happy days under external_link. Warren Buffet says 2009 is going to be bad- 2010 MAYBE bottom and start of slow recovery, 2012 probable best guess to getting noticable recovery and back to 2006/2007 economic status, jobs and credit available. Who you going to believe- the Politician living off tax money or the investor who had the reputation of best market money maker for years that refused to fall for computer dot com craze? RN
 
Right now, Ford has says its future product programs qualify the company for up to $11 billion of the DOE’s $25 billion program. The company figures it may only get about $5 billion, though. Ford has recieved over $10 billion from the DOE program in 2008. What
 
Isn't Warren Buffet a nnalert? That would indicate that he doesn't have a horse in this race and is just calling them like he sees 'em.

Christopher
 
Have a local window factory went bankrupt this fall, workers lost jobs all before Christmas and are now drawing unemployment, the good news is someone in California has taken over the plant and are now calling back the original workforce as non union people with a $2.00 decrease in wages. since there is not much work in this area they are lining up like flies to get those jobs back.

I expect when they get all jobs down to a minimum level there will be lots of work everywhere and all non union so it will stay competitive.

Someone will always be outside the plant {Hungry}to take your job.
 
If you guys (and gals) watched 60 minutes last night Bernanke said the recession should even out by the end of the year and then a SLOw recovery is POSSIBLE. You guys better listen to him he was in office for Bush so he has to be good. According to what I read on this site everybody seems to be anti-Bama.
 
That is true but what about the DOE money?
If Ford was real serious about their business, and I believe that they are up to 90% or so. Then they need to get all the product lines up to snuff, get the warranty costs down, Lots and Lots of money in warranty on that 7.3L diesel. ($1 billion I am told from a very reliable source)
 
I sure as h3ll would trust the thought process and BUSINESS experience of Buffet, over the 'real world experience of a community organizer'. That, and you certainly DO NOT see the secular messiah's sychophants in the mainstream media, questioning the pronouncements of Mr. Buffet. If they thought he was off on his predictions, don't you think that the MSM would be trashing him?

The 'majik kneegrowth' doesn't know anything other than what his teleprompter tells him, and those pulling the strings, are, like him, committed, hard core, socialists/communists.
 
It not logical to think that "against Barry so he must be for Bush". Some people are more than one dimensional.
 
One problem you all missed for the nothern states winter means a recession. With few exceptions (i. e. snowmobiles snow plowing and other winter activites.) So if the rest see an upturn buy late 2009, to late for us it will be summer 2010.
 
The media "created" the recession in order to get external_link elected. They did their job a little too well. They hade to wait an acceptable period before they changed their tune and now they will try to start talking things up so barry can get the credit.

But folks have seen through them and recovery will be slow.

Obammy only says what the teleprompter tells him too. And I am not sure who is programing the teleprompter.

He is not smart enough or experienced enough to be leading this country. There is someone,or ones, that pulls his strings like a big puppet.

Saw this bumper sticker:

You voted for him, I didn't
Can we afford him?


Gene
 
Chairman of the Fed has been saying for 2 years now that things would be better in the next quarter. Guess he'll be right sooner or later.
On these nice spring days,after a long hard winter,it sure seems like it should be over doesn't it?
 
This is unbelievable, you took one of my old descriptions of Bush. Cheney the puppet master has his hand up Bush's caboose.
Second I've heard external_link speak intelligently on a wide variety of topics. Maybe Bush should have had a TelePrompter, can he read?
 
While all that is probably true I read where congress has lots of money invested in that AIG bank and thats why they are pouring money into it.If it fails a bunch of the crooks running government will be bankrupt.
 
The previous administration created the depression we are in now.Try to weasel and lie about it all you want,they stacked up a house of cards and it fell down before the present ones were ever elected.
 
Gee, Bush did it, the media did it, J.R Ewing did it. I don't suppose anyone remembers the artificial boom of the 90's, the bloom in credit card issuance and debt, the artificial housing market boom and it's hyper inflated prices and the resulting rush to find and lend money, 9/11, the gas crunch.....could it be it's a little bigger than just one man and 9 years?

Of course the big question is- will it get better or worse. My money is on WORSE. I don't think external_link has a clue how to "fix" this and doubt he cares much anyway.
 
T-40, you're right about it being cause by a previous administration, just the wrong one. Clinton's community redevelopment act along with slobbering Barney's denial there was nothing wrong with Fannie and Freddy are the direct cause for the credit implosion.
 
Ben Beranke announced yesterday that we could recover in 2010, IF..... I look at it this way. We always have about 4% of the workforce unemployed even when times are the best. National unemployment rate is now almost 9%. Sooo...that means that 91% of the available workfoce is employed. BUT, 4% is always unemployed. Sooo.... that means that we're only seeing an effective reduction in employment of about 5%. So far, anyway. The way some people talk, you'd think we were in the depths of the greatest depression ever. I don't personally know anyone who is "out of a job" because of this economic downturn. I don't see very many help wanted signs but I do see some. I know some foundry empoyees who were so used to the overtime they were getting for years and years that they find it pretty hard to get by on a normal 40 hr paycheck. I know that the RV industry is flat on its back and unemployment in those towns is very high. "When your neighbor is out of a job, it's a recession. When you're out of a job, it's a depression."
 
I'll let ya in on a little news. I have never voted for a Bush and haven't found one that I liked. B seior wasn't too bad but the next one????????????????
 
Yes, and the GW Bush administration warned congress repeatedly, no less than seventeen times in 2007-08 alone, that things were out of control at Freddie and Fannie. Maxine Waters, Chris Dodd and Bawny Fwank strongly disagreed and said that everything was fine at F & F.
 
where do you think companies who make tires and clothes and such get their money?? the whole basis of a capitalist society is at wall street. if companies dont have money to use (which comes from people investing in their companies) then the have no money to invest and grow their businesses. One of the reasons so many layoffs is the capital these guys once had has disappeared (from the the stock market diving, which dove due to invester apprehension, which occured due to the thought that the investor will have less money to begin with and will have less money after investing since his taxes are going up) Otherwise we would be in a utopian socialistic society where i trade you a chicken for your potatoes. i doesnt work - just ask a russian.
 
Yeah TRucker 40 like I told you before, what an idiot Bush was to let those dynosaurs quit dying to make oil a million years ago. and even worse that he didn't force the nnalert controlled congress at gunpoint to put the bank controls that Clinton repealed back in. He should have called you to tell him how to do both.
 
Hey, fellows. Talking about spending all this money and so far no results. How about the TRillions Bush tossed away in eight years? Did the nnalert pay that off before they left office? Ha ha! Everybody is so worked up they forget Bush borrowed all his trillions from China (Government bonds they have bought during his term. I would think that sure isn't helping our economy any.
 
Dont let these guys tell you that the market depends on who is in the white house. The market is designed to fail about every thirty years, and we just happened to be there around 2000, another 5 to 10 years, and the money printed by the fractional reserve lending institutions will have trickled down to the public, and a dollar will have the same buying power as 10 cents.

Dont horde your cash, it becomes devalued in your pocket, spend it on stuff like house/farm/tractor, or something that maintains its wealth like precious metals.

If you want an interesting read, the book A creature from jekyll island by griffin. Chapter two, "The name of the game is bailout" is classic, and appropriate for this economic cycle. Bush rode it down, external_link will ride it up, and both will be blamed accordingly, even though they really had little to do with the fluctuation.

Set your alarm for 25 years, and pull out of the market, it will reproduce this cycle, almost exactly.
 
.
political-pictures-george-w-bush-ultimate-caricature.jpg
 
I know people who are out of work here and business owners who are going broke.Two small stores just quit in Feb about 25 miles from here.One of the stores had 8 employees.The owner saw a 47% decrease in business last summer.Another store had been in business for 50 years, good stock ,prices a bit high.I always stopped in when I went fishing or bought lumber for my picnic tables.They quit selling gas 2 years ago.10 years ago I sold 40 tables every summer, last year just 3.A fellow who built tables about 15 miles from me didnt build any tables last year.I notice the morning rush of people going to work is way down.Newspapers are shutting down, no ad money comming in.Sales of vegetable seeds have increased 50% for 1 seed co here,2 others have seen a 35% increase.Carpenters have no work here.NAFTA, the increased use of credit cards ,crooked mortgages and plain greed have brougth this country too its knees.Real estate taxes take 4 of my SS checks,I dread this years hike. we have been had assessors around last summer putting phoney puffed up values on homes and land.I have watched people buying groceries with credit cards for several years.One electric co sent out disconnect notices to half its customers last year.
 
Jeeze Len, how about we talk about the trillions LBJ and his Great Society cost us or FDR's war in Europe- they didn't attack us. And why did we bailout Mexico under Clinton and what about Carter signing the Panama Canal, built with US funds, over so the Panamanians could sell it to China or Clinton selling our military secrets to China which necessitated us scrapping a whole generation of military tech and starting over new at a cost of how many trillions?

Give it a break would ya? Thats all some of you guys can do and then it turns into another B S fight.
 
There was never a nnalert controlled congress while Bush was President and for 6 years while Clinton was President.Face it,it was a nnalert screw up from the beginning caused by Newt Gingrich to start with.Phil Gram from Texas with his deregulation of the stock market helped Enron and CBOT cause lots of this problem as well.
 
Colleges hand out MBAs all the time. Fairly meaningless. I've worked for a lot of well educated MBA idiots.

By the way, his dad (the smart one) went to Harvard first and it's the "good old boy" system that got Bush Jr. in there.

Haha, fighter pilot? We all forget that he was AWOL for a year. Never saw action. Don't give me that crap like he's a freakin' war hero or something.
 
You forgot something Nixon sold us out to the Chinese long before anybody else had even got close.
 
"where do you think companies who make tires and clothes and such get their money?"

...from selling tires????

I would think selling a good product would be the basis for profit, which would in turn attract investors, which would grow the business so they could make/sell more tires, so they could make more profit, so they could attract investors...

...my point being we need to stop looking at Wall Street as the source of all money. Or the lack of it.

Other people have said it here, and I agree - we need to ignore Wall Street, work hard, earn and then spend our money. That's what moves the economy.

"The only the thing we have to fear is fear itself".
 
So Bush's resume consist of drunkin college days and skippin out of the guard and bringing the country to its knees so I guess anybody just graduating high school or not and working steady for 10-20 years has him beat hands down.
 
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