OT/Recessions?

Anonymous-0 · Mar 10, 2009

I think recessions are partly a product of the media hammering it into everyones head that theres a recession so eventually everyone gets scared and quits spending. This in turn causes a big time recession. Any thoughts?

Anonymous-0 · Mar 10, 2009

I think the people that had their houses foreclosed on didn't learn it from the media.

Jim B. in OH · Mar 10, 2009

Doggone, I totally agree with you. Jim

Gun guru · Mar 10, 2009

That is partially true, too many people believe the blather that spews out of the mouths of commie pinko 8astards. (also known as reporters)

plow hand · Mar 10, 2009

The media sure doesn't help...watch the news at night its either the economy going in the tank, massive layoffs or someone getting murdered or some abuse towards children...I cant even watch it anymore....I can get the weather off the internet here....

Anonymous-0 · Mar 10, 2009

well i just saw a story on the news about the dow going up 370 odd points today , with a bunch of interviews about how the downturn MIGHT be over so is the media helping to end the recession now.

buickddeere · Mar 10, 2009

My GrandFather lived through the "Great Depression". And spent the rest of his life looking for another one like it.

TomH in PA · Mar 10, 2009

No doubt emotions play a part in it. But the amount of money in circulation is the biggest contributor. This recession was brought on by the banks throwing way too much money at mortgages that they knew the borrowers couldn't afford, but they thought the investment banks would cover the bad ones. It worked okay, until the investment banks ran out of cash. When that happened there was no more money in circulation; construction stopped, business investment stopped, jobs were cut, and everything went swirling down the drain.

fixerupper · Mar 10, 2009

Buick, my dad is that way. He tells me he's frugal bacause he saw the depression, but it could be he's naturally frugal and uses the depression as a model. Just this afternoon he talked about the kids that came to school wearing worn out shoes.Jim

thurlow · Mar 10, 2009

We got folks with all kinds of degrees, education, life experiences,etc., who frequent these forums. There's an economist who disguises himself as a trucker; I'm a-waiting to get his take on your post....................

Traditional Farmer · Mar 10, 2009

Too much spending and not saving is what caused the 'bubble' which when it burst caused the downturn.Spending is going cause more problems not solve any.Actually it was imaginary money that was being spent (credit) and when people tried to turn it into real cash the House of Cards
Collapsed.
Also people talking about the Recession/Depression has no more effect on what happens than betting on a horse makes it run slower or faster.

Anonymous-0 · Mar 10, 2009

I don't think the folks who lost their jobs heard about it from the media, either. In fact, if they're like I was when I was working 3rd shift at the frame plant, I'll bet a lot of 'em already weren't watching TV, either.

Brian Jasper co. Ia · Mar 10, 2009

Tom H, you're half right. The government FORCED them to do it. Remember Bill Clinton saying it was everybody's right to own a home? The community redevelopment act is at the root cause.

GeneMO · Mar 10, 2009

I said the same thing several months ago, that to cure the recession you should turn off the TV.
Most agreed, except Buzzman72, who rode our butts for several weeks about it.

I have bought two farms since the "recession". My motto is to do the opposite of what the masses do. If everyone else is suffering a recession, I just choose not to participate.

Gene

GeneMO · Mar 10, 2009

The media cause 100% of this economic problem, and it got out of hand. They did it for one reason, to get Barak elected. Well they did their job a little too well.

He*l yes they are trying to do their part to turn it around. They have to get things squared away before he is up for re-election, and it takes awhile. They have to manufacture the recovery so he can take the credit.

There is a long lag time or delay in economic cycles.

Gene

Spook · Mar 10, 2009

Try telling that to the 1600 people who used to work in my plant. Or the 600K+ that got laid off last month. Yeah, youre doing ok, but a lot of your fellow citizens are not. And haven't been for some time. Our state ( Michigan) has lost jobs every year since 2000. Ohio and Indiana aren't far behind. We will get thru it, we have had hard times before, and will again. And btw, most foreclosures here were the result of job losses, not goofy mortgages, our economy was already going down when the goofy mortgages started.

Anonymous-0 · Mar 10, 2009

Doggone, I am not a trucker, I am a full time firefighter in California and a part time farmer in North Dakota. I do have a Degree in Economics, and althouth I am no Economist, that will not stop me from playing one here. We will use the scientific process. Your hypothesis is that watching television causes recesions. This idea is that we must test. We know however, that there were recessions before television. So no, in fact, watching TV is not what causes recessions. I would suggest world monatery policies, the business cycle and political influence on them may be the real source.

MarkB_MI · Mar 10, 2009

An interesting theory. One totally without substance, but interesting nonetheless.

If you want to blame somebody for the current economic crisis, I suggest you start with the financiers and corporate executives who jeopardized their own companies and the nation at large in pursuit of short-term profits.

Certainly "the Media" has committed any number of wrongs, but creating the greatest global economic crisis in the past 70 years took more that a couple of biased news articles.

By the way, newspapers are going broke left and right. Nobody reads the news anymore.

Anonymous-0 · Mar 10, 2009

Community Redevelopment Act Program (C.R.A.P.) LOL!

GeneMO · Mar 11, 2009

Scott, I am corrected. TV just makes it happen much faster. In the late 1800's they had the same thing, they called it a "panic" then. The root cause was the same though. A loss of confidence in the market, or currency.

Thanks for bring this to our attention.

Gene

Anonymous-0 · Mar 11, 2009

This was only because City Bank announced a profit for the first 2 months 2009. Don't be surprised if it falls tomorrow because there is no news.Similiar to a jump in the price of oil when someone tells the media there is a cyclone on Mars.

Fergienewbee · Mar 11, 2009

With housing in the toilet, house builders are bidding commercial work. It's not unusual to have 20-30 general contractors or electrical contractors bidding on one project. Makes it tough on everyone.

Larry in Michigan

MarkB_MI · Mar 11, 2009

B&D,

My dad always said, "You can tell a kid who grew up during the Depression, but you can't tell him much."

rbel · Mar 11, 2009

Interest only home loans, loaning money to unqualified borrowers, people living off credit cards (I.E. spending their way out of their own personal recession),auto makers unwilling to build anything but SUVs, and people buying 35-50K SUVs to drive to the store, oil speculators, and everyone else who is/was living above their means.
I think greed caused this problem

Bret4207 · Mar 11, 2009

Tom, you got it partly right. The Gov't forced the banks to loan to unqualified buyers. Not quite the same as the banks making the choice.

Anonymous-0 · Mar 11, 2009

Uncertainty causes recessions and when you see your taxes rising, government changing and the media preaching a colapse of our economy you have uncertainty. I've always said if the experts' crystal balls were so clear we would never have a recession.

Tim B from MA · Mar 11, 2009

I guess Barney Frank must be a pretty tough dude for a gay man.

Boo hoo for the poor bankers being bullied by Barney Frank and his ilk.

If you paid attention to information that does not fall into your preset idea of the world, you'd remember that less than two years ago a prominant motto of W. Bush and the nnalert was

"Ownership Society"

Frankly I am sick of narrow minded conservatives blaming the problem on nnalert when the controlled both houses of congress and the presidency for 6 years. Republians must be missing lots of nuts to be so weak as to be bullied by the minority party.

Anonymous-0 · Mar 11, 2009

You misunderstand my position. Since at least 2003, I have been preaching the "house of cards" theory that Traditional Farmer below mentions. Too much of our economy was/is built upon credit...and when credit tightens past a certain point, the house ofcards begins to tumble.

But that occurs whether you turn off your TV or not. But because I watched my TV for awhile, I got out of the stock market with my IRA/401(k) money in 2005. While I might've missed the record high market of October or November 2007, I also missed the devastating losses others have taken since that time. When I got out, the DJIA was in the 10,000 range...not the 14,000 it hit in late 2007, but a lot better than the 6,000 it's settled on lately.

So it's not the fact of watching your TV that hurts you...it's knowing what information is significant, and what information is fluff. If you're watching and listening to folks like Dave Ramsey, and following their advice, your TV and radio are helping you, not hurting you.

And when you get laid off because you didn't see the collapse of this economic house of cards coming, telling your banker you turned off your TV won't keep your mortgage out of foreclosure. It just tells him that you were an ostrich, with your head buried in the sand when the danger signs approached.

bruster · Mar 11, 2009

Everyone keeps comparing now to the 70s. Here in the NE of Ohio the job market was not that bad, since the steel mills were still going till 79 and construction was booming. Unemployment is at 12% here now and it not looking like a Quick recovery. How bad does it have to get before someone at last admits we're in a depression?

Anonymous-0 · Mar 11, 2009

Notice the TRILLIONS of dollars poured by both the government and the Federal Reserve into propping up the banks, and yet there's virtually no inflation? Ever wonder why that is? It's because the banking system is bankrupt, just like the 1930's...it's just that nobody wants to be the one to actually state the truth and cause a worse "panic" than what's already occurring.

If the banks weren't essentially bankrupt, all that cash would have them begging people to take out new loans...and that's simply not happening. Right now, banks are taking the money--and holding it--just to remain solvent [or to APPEAR to remain solvent].

With all the job losses already, wage deflation is on the way. It's alread happened for the UAW, and as the ripple effect occurs you're gonna see it in lots of other industries. And as wages come down, and disposable incomes come down, sales of all kinds of nonessential products will decrease...and the spiral will continue to unwind until it reaches bottom this time.

bruster · Mar 11, 2009

I agree. Seems like EVERYONE with good reserves is holding on to weather it through. It is amusing to see the great new car deals and loans available, but not everyone needs a new car (not with so many good used ones out there only a few years old) or home now.

tlak · Mar 11, 2009

"The Gov't forced the banks to loan to unqualified buyers"

And you got your half wrong. The banks had choices. The banks could be labeled as a bank exempt from this kind of loans. Greedy banks and speculators took the banking system down. I think the whole system was small and large Ponsi schemes.
It was a system blamed on poor unqualified people that probably didn't even participate when the people that probably stole all the money were bankers, housing speculators and small and large businesses

Bret4207 · Mar 12, 2009

The laws were changed to force banks to make more loans to unqualified buyers through FM/FM. Regulations are regulations. The banks have to do what the regs say. How is that a ponzi scheme?

Anonymous-0 · Mar 12, 2009

2 small stores closed in FEB near here.One owner said business was off 42 % last summer.He had to close, 8 employees out of work.Bank owns the store building now.The other store had been in businness 50 years.They quit selling gas and diesel last year.I always stopped in for gas and a sandwich when I went fishing or bought lumber in that town.Good stock, prices a bit higher than super markets.

Anonymous-0 · Mar 12, 2009

The slide started about 10 years ago.I took my SS at 62 because my shop income was dropping.Small engine work was gone.I did a lot of lumber planing and ran many thousands of feet of door and window casing.The fellow I bought lumber from closed up.I had a mail order book business that was doing fine.Ad costs went way up.Just a trickle of orders now.When people started buying groceries with credit cards things really fell apart.Inflation is the real problem.My RE taxes doubled.Hay started selling for 3to5 bucks a bale.Horses get sold,no one raises a few calves or pigs for the freezer any more.Fire wood went from 40 bucks a cord to 300.00 Easy to blame the news for the problem but it plain old greed.Friend just paid 96 bucks to have a propane heater serviced.Grocery prices are running wild.Wait until smokers get a 258% increase in tax on tobacco April 1.

OT/Recessions?

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