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Anonymous-0
Well-known Member
Saw a news item yesterday where Goldman-Sachs or one of those other high-power investment bankers recommended its customers dump all their automotive stocks. Might be a time to buy, might not; the ol' crystal ball is a little cloudy, and the "magic 8-ball" never gave much good investment advice when I needed it.
Back in the 1970's, there was talk about the government antitrust folks making GM split off Chevrolet as a separate company, since GM had around 58% of the domestic car market and their closest competitor, Ford, only had about 30%...but Ford was against splitting up GM. Their logic was that GM "only" had 58% of the market, while a split GM and Chevy might end up with 30% EACH, and cut deeper into Ford's market share. These days, I'd reckon Ford and GM both would call that time "the good old days," considering where market share is today.
In these "global economy" days, I'd imagine Honda or Toyota might be a better investment if you're looking for growth...with the Koreans like Hyundai or Kia being a tad riskier, but with higher potential gains. But unless GM and Ford change their mindset and start marketing a better product--more of what the consumer "wants," as opposed to what Detroit says the consumer "needs" to buy--I don't look for the domestic manufacturers to be any kind of great investment for the long term.
Still, when your dividend makes the stock pay an 8.7% return, it IS kinda tempting. Just make sure any brokerage fees don't turn that into a losing proposition, too.
JMHO...and he wife can tell you how often I'm wrong, 'cause she likes to keep score on those kinda things.
Back in the 1970's, there was talk about the government antitrust folks making GM split off Chevrolet as a separate company, since GM had around 58% of the domestic car market and their closest competitor, Ford, only had about 30%...but Ford was against splitting up GM. Their logic was that GM "only" had 58% of the market, while a split GM and Chevy might end up with 30% EACH, and cut deeper into Ford's market share. These days, I'd reckon Ford and GM both would call that time "the good old days," considering where market share is today.
In these "global economy" days, I'd imagine Honda or Toyota might be a better investment if you're looking for growth...with the Koreans like Hyundai or Kia being a tad riskier, but with higher potential gains. But unless GM and Ford change their mindset and start marketing a better product--more of what the consumer "wants," as opposed to what Detroit says the consumer "needs" to buy--I don't look for the domestic manufacturers to be any kind of great investment for the long term.
Still, when your dividend makes the stock pay an 8.7% return, it IS kinda tempting. Just make sure any brokerage fees don't turn that into a losing proposition, too.
JMHO...and he wife can tell you how often I'm wrong, 'cause she likes to keep score on those kinda things.
Anonymous-0
Well-known Member
What's GM got going for it that's going to improve its outlook? As far as dividends, I wish I'd never heard the word. I think it's a government ploy for taxes. For instance, I have mutual funds (chosen by a "professional"). I have the "dividends" reinvested, however those are reported to the IRS as income. Last year I paid taxes on an extra $10,000 of (phantom) income while my portfolio lost $8,000 in bottom line value. Over the long haul, you're also losing to inflation which the IRS won't take into consideration. A lesson in the school of hard knocks.
Maybe they should get off the pot and start makeing parts to fill their back orders ? I have 5 sway bars for Century's sold if I could get any ! Still waiting on a 3rd stop lamp for a Rendezvous. My small order yesterday 1/2 of it is backordered ! Fellow that works at the Dodge store is having the same problem.
TripleRange
Member
I don't know much about stocks and markets and such but I changed my wife's honda CRV brakes last weekend. The parts on that thing were half as small as what is on my Chevy Cavilier. I'm talking wheel hubs and brake pads....perhaps city driving is not as hard on cars as country? I know that the Honda has been in the shop just as much as the chevy. Perhaps the foreign car superiority is a figment of the imagination? We won WW2 with superior technology...didn't we?
Maybe the kid down the street really is smarter than the kid across the world and we just didn't realize it?
Maybe the kid down the street really is smarter than the kid across the world and we just didn't realize it?
I'm thinking real hard about getting some. I've got a fair amount in my account and have watched the stock bounce around over the years. Made some decent money selling some of it a few years back. GM is NOT going to go under. They've got some tough times ahead, but at that price, it only has to move to $22 to double your money and that is not unreasonable. Of any of the Detroit 3, GM is in the best shape. I think Ford is real shaky. They're cutting heads like crazy. Old saying, you can't cut your way to prosperity. Plus, they've mortgaged the company (including the Blue Oval logo) and are burning through cash like crazy. That bill will come due and I don't think they'll have enough profits to pay it off. I'm sure their "restructuring" plan didn't include $4 gas and a plunge in SUV/Truck sales, which is where they make all their profit. Since the Ford family personal fortunes are tied to the stock, I'm guessing they' bail out and sell the company piecemeal before they let it go under. Just my .02.
Invest what your sleep factor will take. Just on TV this AM the GM is CASH strapped to do the turn around they had planned. Don't know if an IPO is in the GM future? Auto nation car dealers dumped all the big three car dealerships except a few in CA. Invested in rice burners dealerships. This took place mid last year. They only look at the bottom line not the sheet metal. As of two years back every GM car off the line had 1500 dollars health care price tag included in the sticker price. GM and Ford has followed CAT and the air line to the A/B pay scales. Sort of reminds me of the 1974 gas jumped off 35 cents the cars were down sized for a while and with gas around a dollar in early eightys the cars got bigger. The big boys were way too slow to make any turn arounds do to the size and mind set of the very well paid CEO's. Mopar did keep the big cars until the famious K car arrived in 1981 and the GOV bailed out their butts. The Gov bought untold numbers of K cars and light trucks. The door hing pin was a large cottor pin that was bent over to keep it in place on the K car. Still see one on the road once a while figured it was very low mileage. They had wiring loom and carb problems in a major was.
Ford dealership in NE Missouri is selling stripper 1/2 ton trucks for 9999.00.
Take a 100 dollar bill at the gas pump for the most part soo is this truck a deal?
Ford dealership in NE Missouri is selling stripper 1/2 ton trucks for 9999.00.
Take a 100 dollar bill at the gas pump for the most part soo is this truck a deal?
Tractor,Tractor
Member
GM is heavily invested in China, India and Korea. They are bigger in China than Toyota. They also have alot going on in the old eastern Europe, will be bringing a German Opel to the States next year.
Phantom Income??? What are you talking about. You said it yourself your mutual fund paid you a "dividend" (Actually the fund gains for the year)
Then you decided to invest the money by buying more mutual fund. Just beacuse you have this done automaticly instead of getting a check then sending it back in does not make it Phantom income.
That's like saying a direct deposit paychek is phantom pay just because you didn't get to feel the money.
Then you decided to invest the money by buying more mutual fund. Just beacuse you have this done automaticly instead of getting a check then sending it back in does not make it Phantom income.
That's like saying a direct deposit paychek is phantom pay just because you didn't get to feel the money.
About the time everyone believes that something will "never" happen you better start planning for it.
In 1970 IH was one of the 5 largest corporations on earth. In 1980 they had "financial problems" but everyone (I remember reading this in several farm magazines) said they'd weather the storm like they had for the past hundred years. A few years later all that was left was the truck division.
All three of the domestic automakers have been having problems since the start of the decade. $4.00 a gallon gas has just about slammed the coffin door shut on them. If Chrysler hadn't been sold to Daimler in 1998 they wouldn't exist today. The Germans paid 38 BILLION for Chrysler in 1998, 10 years later Daimler paid Cerberus almost a half billion to take Chrysler off their hands. Since then Daimler making profits and Chrysler is losing money by the billions.
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2007/05/14/how-a-74-billion-windfall-becomes-a-650-million-bill/
For all the talk about RESESSION the country isn't even close - unemployment is still 5% - near historic lows and the economony is still growing. If the big three can't make money now what will they do if we hit a couple years like we had in the 70s and early 80s?
In 1970 IH was one of the 5 largest corporations on earth. In 1980 they had "financial problems" but everyone (I remember reading this in several farm magazines) said they'd weather the storm like they had for the past hundred years. A few years later all that was left was the truck division.
All three of the domestic automakers have been having problems since the start of the decade. $4.00 a gallon gas has just about slammed the coffin door shut on them. If Chrysler hadn't been sold to Daimler in 1998 they wouldn't exist today. The Germans paid 38 BILLION for Chrysler in 1998, 10 years later Daimler paid Cerberus almost a half billion to take Chrysler off their hands. Since then Daimler making profits and Chrysler is losing money by the billions.
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2007/05/14/how-a-74-billion-windfall-becomes-a-650-million-bill/
For all the talk about RESESSION the country isn't even close - unemployment is still 5% - near historic lows and the economony is still growing. If the big three can't make money now what will they do if we hit a couple years like we had in the 70s and early 80s?
Nancy Howell
Well-known Member
GM temporarily closed their Arlington, Tx. plant that produces suv's weeks ago. It was scheduled to re-open this month, but GM extended the closure. I personally would not invest in any vehicle company stocks (or just about any stock) right now.
A historical comment: we pretty much won the war by smothering Germany and Japan with production of war material (materiel?)...while a lot of the Japanese army stuff was light, because their people were smaller and they were desperately short of resources, their navy might've been the best in the world...
German stuff was often superior to ours; we just outproduced them, and ground their production down gradually...
That's vastly oversimplified, and not meant to dismiss what we did well, just to say it wasn't a total victory of American technology.
German stuff was often superior to ours; we just outproduced them, and ground their production down gradually...
That's vastly oversimplified, and not meant to dismiss what we did well, just to say it wasn't a total victory of American technology.
Anonymous-0
Well-known Member
I see it as "phantom" income, because, as you say the dividend was automatically plowed back into the fund. However at the end of the day- (or year rather) the proceed or dividend wasn't enough to offset the loss of value of the stock. It's like this, suppose you give me $1,000. I slice off $50 from your $1,000 and tell the government you "made" $50, but meanwhile your $1,000 depreciates to $925. That's phantom income in my book. Our govn't tells us we should save for our future, not count on social security, and this is how it goes. Sorry for whining. I'd just be staying away from the stock market...
buickanddeere
Well-known Member
Sounds something like a couple of my investments.I just recieved a call this week from Federal Revenue wanting almost $20,000 in re-assessed taxes.
Something to be said for just paying all your debt and putting the savings in a coffee can.
Something to be said for just paying all your debt and putting the savings in a coffee can.
Guess I'd be interested to know who has the inside track on a "plug-in hybrid"- and maybe throw in flex fuel, just for fun. Reason being, when a successful one hits the market (50 mile range on straight battery, then 50 MPG as a hybrid), EVERYONE will buy one. Millions of folks could commute all week without using a drop of fuel, but have the capability for the occasional road trip when they can afford it. Whichever company hits the market first with that one will see their fortunes improve in a hurry.
Anonymous-0
Well-known Member
I think maybe people should dump their Goldman Sachs stock. Those investment banks are pretty arrogant with their statements. They are farther down the food chain than GM. People need cars to be around but a lot of investment banks could disappear and nobody would care!
GM is by far the strongest of the big?? three. Cerberus will dump Chrysler as soon as there is any upturn. Ford will muddle through. As someone earlier stated, GM is actually beating Toyota and Honda in all the developing countries including China. GM has alternative fuel technology and battery, hydrogen technology up the wazoo. But lets be honest, they weren't forcing people to buy big SUV's and more pick up than they really needed. Now that we have to pay the piper, people are blaming GM "they made me do it". No, you did it to be cool and impress your neighbor. GM gets a bad rap in the regular and financial press but actually has more technology in the pipeline than any other mfgr. including the Japanese.
GM stock, as well as Citigroup was downgraded by Goldman Sachs within days of GM choosing Citigroup as the banker to pursue a buyer for Hummer. Goldman Sachs was not chosen.?????
GM is an excellant buy at the current price.
GM stock, as well as Citigroup was downgraded by Goldman Sachs within days of GM choosing Citigroup as the banker to pursue a buyer for Hummer. Goldman Sachs was not chosen.?????
GM is an excellant buy at the current price.
(quoted from post at 02:42:07 06/27/08) In these "global economy" days, I'd imagine Honda or Toyota might be a better investment if you're looking for growth...with the Koreans like Hyundai or Kia being a tad riskier, but with higher potential gains. But unless GM and Ford change their mindset and start marketing a better product--more of what the consumer "wants," as opposed to what Detroit says the consumer "needs" to buy--I don't look for the domestic manufacturers to be any kind of great investment for the long term.
GM, Ford and Chrysler made exactly what the consumer wanted, large trucks and SUV's, what they didn't plan on was everybody switching back to boring reliable cars in just a couple years... which is what Toyota/Honda are famous for. Factor in the media's love for playing up the "David vs Golith" thing giving tons of free advertisement every time an import comes out on top, and keeping it hush hush when ever they don't and it is no wonder they are in the shape they are.
(quoted from post at 07:44:47 06/27/08) A historical comment: we pretty much won the war by smothering Germany and Japan with production of war material (materiel?)...while a lot of the Japanese army stuff was light, because their people were smaller and they were desperately short of resources, their navy might've been the best in the world...
German stuff was often superior to ours; we just outproduced them, and ground their production down gradually...
That's vastly oversimplified, and not meant to dismiss what we did well, just to say it wasn't a total victory of American technology.
We made Shermans on automobile assembly lines, the Germans generally made their tanks in bulldozer factories. Major difference in technology IMO.
Japanese equipment just was not that well made to compete, they did well at first but once we got on the ball it turned really ugly for them.
The majority of losses of Shermans were not from battle with other tanks, but rather from mines, aircraft, infantry anti-tank weapons and, on occasion, friendly fire. Although American tanks were less powerful than their German counterparts, US armored forces ultimately triumphed because of numerical superiority, a more consistent supply of fuel and ammunition, and the allied air superiority (with aircraft being the biggest danger to the lines of supply for German tank units).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherman_tank#U.S._production_history
Anonymous-0
Well-known Member
Yeah the stock is cheap, but its unknown what is going to happen to GM. Right now they got a massive product line that is no longer selling with the exception of only a few of its cars like the Aveo and the Malibu. Its not a very good sign when the company execs are talking about possibly trying to merge with Ford to stay alive.
buickanddeere
Well-known Member
There was a time when Chrysler and Harley Davidson were "penny" stocks in the 1980"s.
The big three are not going away but they certainly will be different.
I"d wait until the elections or even year or two for the economy to really bottom out before purchasing.
The big three are not going away but they certainly will be different.
I"d wait until the elections or even year or two for the economy to really bottom out before purchasing.
Anonymous-0
Well-known Member
Federal Moguel was trading at $60 in about 1999. Lots of people bought it at $30. Lots bought it at $15, $7.50, $3.75, $2, $1. Cant go any lower right? A buddy of mine and myself used to do a lot of stock trading. We always used to laugh about the can't go any lower saying. We used to have one too. If it isn't to zero yet it can and will go lower! I bought some federal moguel at $25 and sold it at $30. Then I bought it 6 months later at $20 and sold it at $15! It went to zero. Buying individual stocks is rissssssssky! Only do it with money you can afford to not have. Gm could be ok. It would be better if they had a flying car that burned CO2.
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