Farmer's deciding not to plant?

I was at work yesterday, and one of our local fairly large farm operators told him that they were idling the farm operation. He said the cost of inputs were too high. The ever increasing fuel has now made planting a no win situation for them. This doesn"t sound good. Any of you out there come to the same conclusion yet? I sure hope some of you can plant, and harvest this season. If this country loses one growing season food prices will go through the roof.

The higher input costs to grow a crop still balance out with higher commodity prices to sell the crop.

I think this guy is pulling your leg.

Gary

For sure,

Talked to a guy Saturday night who is re-planting 3,000 acres of sugar beets because they froze out.

Now, that's gotta be a hit on the old cash-flow. :>(

Allan

I am more worried on the furure of the cow operations than on this years farming. Large scale farming will still pencil out.

I rented my farm out for 08 but ran the numbers for this years corn crop.With an average yield of 125 bu and this years inputs I would have still cleared nearly $250 per acre which is fantastic.In the past with $2 corn and low inputs I was lucky to clear $50-100 per acre or less.

To get $250 an acre profit I would have had to bought my seed,fertilizer,and fuel last fall as I usually do.I also would have had to forward contracted at least half my corn for $5 plus.

This year is off to a bad start as the corn was planted later than normal and about 1/3rd of the corn had to be replanted in my area.I was across southern Illinois on I-64 this weekend and alot of the corn was being replanted.I look for record corn prices this fall as the nations corn crop isnt off to a good start.

$12 beans figure out real good too as theres no fertilzer bill.Soft wheat has fallen to under $6 per bu which isnt good.If you had it contracted at $9 you will do fine.

No ground is sitting idle in this area.If 10 acres came up for rent there would be at least 5 farmers wanting it.Every acre is going to be planted in 2008.2009 is the year thats going to get real interesting.

In SW Wisconsin where my place is at, grain farming appears to be forward after a very late start this year. Dairy appears to be another story, several local dairy operations have shut down for good. Operations ranging in the 40 to 80 milking head size.

I don't know where he is from Gary,but I could show you whole farms taken out of prod.by owners because of getting tired of trading "Dollars".I idled 400 in 06 and may idle 600 more if the Fert.and seed prices keep going up and can't get a firm Contract for the new crop.

Baldwin County Alabama, on the Gulf Coast around Mobile. I"m not sure he was blowing smoke Gary, he rents about 250 acres that borders me on the south side. About a month ago they came through, and I think pulled a subsoiler through to build the zones for their no till planter. They haven"t done anything since, and not just that field. Around the main farm it doesn"t look like other row crops are in either. If I see them, I plan to ask directly, the person that spoke to him is a co-worker.

Could be the truth if it was going into CRP or CREP. As stated before, CRP is paying $175/acre and CREP $182/acre with an additional one time signing bonus, paid establishment costs, and some preferred maintenance payout. Would be tough to get a whole farm in the program. Otherwise it would need to be pure sand with no irrigation or some other nearly worthless soil before it wouldn't pay to farm it this year.

I know several cattle farms that are cutting numbers in half. Some of the smaller part timers are selling out completely. If I've got a choice I'll idle my chicken houses this winter. I'm already at less than break even in Jan-Feb loosing another $20K just ain't appealing to me. Short term cattle looks kinda bad but if numbers are cut enough the price should come back we may have to fatten out on grass. I've done it before, I can do it again.

Why can't you get a forward price? Where are you located?

I can sell out to July of 09. And have done so.

What is your yields for the area?

Just put in bean seed and spray once or twice with Roundup. $60 input.

Only takes 5 bushel to pay for inputs.


30 bushel yield gives you $250 plus for time and machinery.

Wish you were closer. I would farm it.

Gary

That sounds like a farm subsidy to my Canadian ears. Hmmm, yet that's a violation when we want to do something like that.

The EU has paid set aside for many years. Almost always put field ends or other poorly yielding areas in the program. Also allowed a farmer to transfer/combine set aside from one farm(s) to another. You can imagine it all was transfered to the poorest land. All-in-all not a bad plan if used correctly, because it removes land from production, thereby tending to raise prices for commodities which are produced. Perhaps not such a grand scheme for livestock owners and perhaps biofuels.

My neighbors mentioned doing one fewer pass this year on the corn fields (silage) and hoping it wouldn't hurt them too much. Not sure if that was cultivation or spraying.

Overheard at the feed store that a lot of people were skipping fertlizing hay this year -- those are pretty much all part-time or hobby operations in my area. Call me silly, but I'd think if a lot of people aren't fertilizing, those who do will have a nice market later this year.

Gary,I wasn't maybe clear on mine,but I'am out to Feb.09 but the last I looked ADM or Cargill wouldn't go out on 09 Crops and are ?? on 08 Prod..I think (hope not)prices will fall back enough to Past Price spreads and thats when I stop or slow down more.Corn 150-250 easy,Beans 40-70 normal.

Sounds like bad business to me. Even if you didn"t want to farm it you could rent it. Plus why work it a month ago, if they really are idling it then they are very short sighted. Figuring on rental value then its impossible to believe this story.

Everything I say is conjecture, but they usually plant peanuts. I don"t think fuel prices now are what they are worried about. I would bet that they are thinking fuel prices will be too high to harvest peanuts in the fall/late summer. Anybody know how much fuel a John Deere 8400 or 8500 series tractor burns pulling a peanut harvestor? Maybe they will change crops? I don"t know. BUT, my only concern is if agriculture"s production in this country is affected by high oil prices I am very worried about the next few years. High fuel prices are one thing, but no food on the shelves is another.---Anybody know if the fed"s really have a stock pile of peanuts purchased through USDA? I have always heard that---is it true?

Here in southern MN, the local coops have stopped making contracts more than one year (next crop...) out. My understanding is the Cargills & ADM's also have quit going any farther than that 'here'.

It is also hard to get a contract any time of the day - tougher & tougher to contract ahead.

--->Paul