Tractor longevity......

It's the opinion of many on here that today's tractors won't have the lifespan of yesterday's tractors. Maybe, maybe not...A couple observations....when I was a kid long ago, in 1960, a ten year old tractor was nearing obsolescence....most had no 3 PT, or live pto or power steering as most new tractors did. In 1960, a 30 year old tractor was almost unheard of....in my dad's garage at the time, the oldest tractor I remember was one 10 20 McCormick Deering...everything else was an old Massey 30, or 8N Ford, John Deere AR of IH W4. Back then, farmers said the same thing....these new tractors are too complicated, they won't be around in 25 years....
Well, my new tractor turns 30 years old this year, and would easily sell for 3/4s of its original price of 40k. My other tractor is 50 years old, and gets used nearly every day in season. Maybe today's tractors have more life in them than we think....at least I hope so.

What's your opinion?

Ben

It's the electronics that will doom today's tractors. Look how quick your home computer gets obsolete.

The electronics will end the newer machines.

The pollution control stuff will really doom the newest tractors. Its tied into the electronics and wont run unless both the systems work, and both are too spendy to troubleshoot and carrry parts for 3-5 decades into the future.

Much of the electronics is proprietary info, and cant be duplicated by third party. The mother company can make an entire series a hunk of scrap iron and planting with a software swipe.

Paul

I agree, the older tractors are mechanical, just replace worn parts with new or used parts. The new ones are electronic, you have to have a dealer technician with the right software to even diagnose the problem, then when the company decides not to make the electronic parts any longer, they are done. It's already a problem with early computerized tractors.

Yes, it is, but perhaps the proprietary info has a time span, like a patent or copyright, and in time can be duplicated by a 3rd party as the cost of such components go down....kinda like a handheld calculator in the 1970s cost 100 bucks then...and replacement kits may become available that will take the place of original equipment....sad to see a machine scrapped that is mechanically sound but needing computerized parts.

Ben

Just look at personal computers of the last 30 years. The storage devices and operating systems many times wont allow the retrieval of data saved 30 years ago. And even if you can retrieve the data it will take a lot of effort. Electronics and software are changing fast and sometimes permanently. Therefore I conclude that it will be very difficult for a 2020 tractor to run in 2070.

When patenting something, the inventor has to give a complete description of how the system works for public record. In return, the inventor gets the right to sue anyone who sells the invention without permission--so-called offensive rights. The original purpose behind the patent system was not the business incentive, but rather the public disclosure. At the time (late 1700's) it was thought that sharing inventions would spur further inventions, and so on (and it did).

But today, the software is compiled into machine language before it is put on the chip. The software is only licensed to the user, with the requirement that it not be reverse-compiled to recover the source code. The software is specifically *not* copywrited or patented to avoid the public-disclosure requirement.

It is possible that an aftermarket work-around could emerge, but anyone reverse compiling would be subject to lawsuits for violating end-user agreements. The manufacturer won't support the product, because they want you to buy a newer one. There has been some talk of reforming the laws surrounding ownership of products containing software, but little progress has been made. I hope you are right, but I am not optimistic. Dave

Ben you might like to think that the companies that build tractors will continue to provide support or give up proprietary information/technology to repair the electronic parts of the tractors, once the company no longer will. But I am not willing to hang on to the tractors long enough to find out. I really enjoy using my 1960s tractors with simple and mechanical design, but there is nothing compares to using a new tractor.

You also need to look at the number of tractors produced. A quick search told me 270140 Farmall Ms were built. Even if 5% are still around, that is 13507. I would guess that many of todays models, they dont build much more than that number total. So there will still be more Ms hanging around than there will ever be built of todays tractors.

The good news is at my age I have more than enough good older tractors to farm and do whatever I want as long as I want to farm without having to buy one of the plastic,electronic beasts being sold now.Got better things to do with my money than spend it on over priced tractors and equipment that wouldn't add one penny to the bottom line.

I don't know Ben. My newest tractor is a 1982. I've got a 1950 that I still use 7 days a week. I've said before though, I don't think these Deere, CNHI or AGCO are just going to scrap these tractors when the electronics give out. They'll have kits that include a new computer, sensors and wiring harness to update them to whatever the newest technology is by the time they need it.

I tend to agree with you, Randy. If the company wont supply parts, they may sell the proprietary rights to another manufacturer who will meet the market, kinda like buying aftermarket parts.....an aftermarket company can sell a head gasket designed by Deere, only after after a number of years when the parent company releases the right to do so. I can't see a tractor worth 50 k in good running order being parted for lack of even 5 k in computerized parts.

Ben

Ben, I agree with you I think that there will be less of these newer vehicles that have computers lasting long term as we continue to move into the future. No one is going to make the parts. This goes for both cars/trucks and tractors. Cars/trucks from the 90's will continue to diminish in numbers as computer parts fail and no new parts are built. Why would the manufacture or anyone else make parts that have a limited sales volume and a limited shelf life.

This!

Try buying parts for even a 10 year old personal computer.

(quoted from post at 22:33:13 04/24/21) Yes, it is, but perhaps the proprietary info has a time span, like a patent or copyright, and in time can be duplicated by a 3rd party as the cost of such components go down....kinda like a handheld calculator in the 1970s cost 100 bucks then...and replacement kits may become available that will take the place of original equipment....sad to see a machine scrapped that is mechanically sound but needing computerized parts.

Ben

Click to expand...

I don't think so. I think it will be like a lot of other stuff- rob what you need off a donor rig and then when donors dry up, it's the end. There are thousands of tractors and trucks sitting in hedgerows now because you can't get ONE part. It isn't going to get better.

Electronics blah blah blah.... People have been saying "They'll never last" with EVERY generation of tractors that comes out.

That 30 year old tractor? When it came out in 1990 all the old farmers looked at it, wrinkled their noses, and said, "JUNK! Pure junk! Look at all the electronics and hydraulics on them! My 4020 is still going strong and doesn't have any of that crap! These tractors will be in the scrapyard in 10 years and mine will still be going in 50."

Back in 1960 the same thing happened. The 4020 came out and all the old farmers with their Farmall M's and Deere G's looked at them and said, "JUNK! Pure junk! They'll never last!"

I guess it's just human nature to defend your "thing" and put down anything "new."

I wouldn't consider a tractor that is 30 or 50 years old new. My opinion, the lifespan of tractors dropped a lot when the emissions stuff began with them. So 2010-2015 or newer.