2021.......

Obviously no one knows the future, but
what are your predictions for prices in
the New year? Cattle prices having been
going down around me but thats typical of
this time of year. Corn I think is
somewhere in 3-4$ range but I dont really
keep tabs on that I just pay the feed mill
whatever they charge and be done with it.
There's always alot of uncertainty but
especially going into 2021, I've put all
my major farm improvement plans on hold
for now, guess we'll see what happens.
-Garrett
 
No one can ever really say they know for sure and for certain how things will go on the farm next year. Will it rain enough? Will it rain too much? Will some war start up in some corner of the world, that will effect trade , and distort prices? I always go with this one thought, I try to only concern myself with the things which I have control over, and try to do the best I can. I am planning on a major reinvestment in our dairy farm this year, installing a liquid manure tank and manure handling system. Don’t really want to, but rules are dictating the changes must be made. Or else no Grade A certificate, and we won’t be able to stay in dairy. Could cost me around two hundred thousand dollars. Rerun on investment... zero, but I can stay in production.
 
The commodity I watch is the metals price. My steel prices for the fab shop have doubled in the last 45 days, that is if I can get it at all. I need 20 sheets of 14 gauge CRS for Jan and that seems to be impossible to find. Aluminum is a bit more steady. Getting into my hardware vendors too. I have a bushing I buy by the thousands and Monday the vendor had only about a hundred on hand. Hasn't even returned my call about when there will be more.

Yet the scrap yards are overflowing. I've heard stories ranging from the steel mills out East are shut down due to the virus. Also heard the mini-mills in the South that specialize in tube and angle are running 24x7 and can't keep up. You folks that live near the mills, what is the real story? Nothing here in Iowa to compare to.
 
Potential for about anything to happen next year.I'm staying debt free and not making any major moves.As far as cattle I don't have a clue really week to week how much they will bring,goats have been pretty steady.
 
Speaking about soybeans, they were priced @ 8.75 bushel in late July 2020. Today they are priced @ 12.61 bushel. A hail of an increase in 6 months. China has lots of hogs and getting more ,they need millions of tons of soybean meal to feed them, they are getting beans from U. S. at present. Hard to say if that price will hold after January or what direction ag commodities will go. This price is high enough to spur some increase in farm equipment sales or pay down on debt.
 
1-21-21... Its just another day.. get up feed the cows do the chores, And hope that we can make it thru the ride we are all in for no matter what happens.. Just remember we are all in it together..

My suggestion is to try and stay debt free, or at least don't take on anymore debt.

Cattle prices go up and down, always have always will. Milk, corn, grain and hay are the same.. It always seemed like when milk was down feed was up. when milk was up, feed was WAY up..

Remember we all do this for the million dollars of FUN we have doing it... Aren't we?

I had a wise old farmer tell me once, he had always been a millionaire.. It was just in RED INK..
 
Interesting. Our former Governor, China's Ambassador, told his friend XI to 'hang tight'. (regarding the tariff) But President XI began using Brazil for soybeans (part of the clear-cut in the Amazon). Supplying them with tractors, planters and harvesting equipment, too. No wonder we haven't heard from our former Governor.
 
(quoted from post at 09:57:31 12/23/20) No one can ever really say they know for sure and for certain how things will go on the farm next year. Will it rain enough? Will it rain too much? Will some war start up in some corner of the world, that will effect trade , and distort prices? I always go with this one thought, I try to only concern myself with the things which I have control over, and try to do the best I can. I am planning on a major reinvestment in our dairy farm this year, installing a liquid manure tank and manure handling system. Don t really want to, but rules are dictating the changes must be made. Or else no Grade A certificate, and we won t be able to stay in dairy. Could cost me around two hundred thousand dollars. Rerun on investment... zero, but I can stay in production.


Bruce, anything in the system besides a pump and tanker/spreader? Will you have to get a bigger tractor for the spreader? Make sure that the drawbar has no cracks. Breaking a drawbar adds a major headache to your day.I don't know if they still do but here the USDA used to pay for a big chunk of manure handling investment in order to maintain water quality. Do you get that up there.
 
Corn and soybeans are moving higher. I can't speak for livestock other than beef cattle, but I think fed cattle will stay steady. But as stated, nobody knows what can happen. We are in a credit bubble with the stock markets, and there are a lot of messes to be cleaned up, but better days are coming.

Lon
 
Kinda strange I haven't seen major movement in steel prices yet out here in south central ny . Last coil of galvanized was up 8 cents a lb . Just priced 4800 lbs of beams and channel not much different from a month ago .
 
Local price on beans was $12.53 today. I sold alot out of the field in the $9.80 to $10.85 range. I read its dry in Brazil causing the increase. How high will they go? I am thinking about hauling a few loads to core the bins.
 
(quoted from post at 16:13:41 12/23/20) Ah yes. It is nice to be working on my 4th million. By the way...I gave up on the first 3.

I was told the second million was easier than the first, so that is where I started LOL!
 
(quoted from post at 19:09:44 12/23/20) How much of the year will be shut down or for how many years ?

SV, that is up to you and your ilk. Not the CDC, not the gov't. nor the battered medical community.
 
So true and many of those businesses are not coming back either. I echo what a few others have said in not taking on any new debt. I've got a truck payment and that is plenty for now.
 
I’ve got one purchase I need to make and that’s it . No telling what’s going to happen when mr I’ll listen to science takes over
 

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