NY 986

Well-known Member
I just priced farm diesel fuel this morning. 2.00 per gallon average depending how much you take per delivery. Corn to the ethanol plant is still a positive basis but the neighbor and I are speculating with crude oil dropping the basis could go negative. Also, a lot of corn grading out poorly due to test weight among other factors and hearing dockage of over 40 cents per bushel. Dropping crude oil prices is a good news/bad news type event as the cost of business obviously gets better but the worry is there the ethanol plant could idle itself until things change. The area corn market would flood without the ethanol plant.
 
We usually fill the farm tank after harvest ever year. This year was such a pretty fall we ran thru the crop and was thru way before Thanksgiving. To be honest I just forgot about filling the tank. Had a load dropped this morning for $1.76 per gallon lowest in awhile. Like one says this thing may be a good/bad situation. Corn in our bin is sold and paid with purchaser to have out of the bin by 1 April with 5 cents bushel storage after that date till ! Aug . Who know what next year is going to bring.
 
The ethanol is an octane additive as well as 10% added to gas (except for ethanol free) so lower oil prices should lead to lower gas prices which should keep the demand there for the ethanol, unless the economy really falters and gasoline usage goes way down as summer approaches, which is opposite of normal demand.
 
Lower oil prices do lead to lower gas prices but I have been told there is little incentive to blend ethanol when the pump price goes below 2.30-2.40 dollars per gallon. We are at that threshold here locally and that is before the decline in crude was factored in.
 
Fulton, NY near Syracuse and Medina, NY near Buffalo. Corn as an input, energy (natural gas), and labor are absolute costs to these plants that get hard to cover as the pump price drops as straight gasoline starts to have an advantage as it approaches 2.00 per gallon retail.
 
I don't think incentive has anything to do with blending in, Goverment mandated how buch has to be in every gallon of fuel sold and incentive can not over ride goverment mandated. So as long as fuel is still being sold same amount will have to be mixed in.
 

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