OT disappointed in what i heard today.

I was at our local feed/grain co-op today. the subject was how we might face some tough years ahed. the comment was made "it could be the 80"s all over again" a younger employee spoke right up , (he's around 30) "That's good" he said, "Sort out the weak and stupid, make room for the real famers" mind you his dad and uncle farm quite abit. is there still this kind of thinking out there? I don't think this is a good , much less positive ideal towards agriculture. with all that is going on we need all and to say one who would fail is weak or stupid??? I remember some very good and smart operators who left agriculture a few years ago , I would say some WERE NOT weak or stupid.

More so, those who came through and got bigger than ever were the cheaters and not so nice folk.

The better guys that got hurt by the 80s were the ones that got put out of farming for good! they had too much character and honesty to be given a chance back in.....

Big topic, short reply.

Paul

I wouldn't say just because you leave agriculture or fail you are weak/stupid. Stuff happens. That being said, we almost need a situation like the 80s again to straighten out land and rent values. Super low interest, interest only payments, and fairly good crop prices are enticing too many guys to make pricey 25 year decisions on 1 or 2 good years. Although I think some of the big operators have enough land bought and paid for and/or are tied in tight enough with the bank that it will be hard for them to fail.

(quoted from post at 11:20:57 12/12/15)
I was at our local feed/grain co-op today. the subject was how we might face some tough years ahed. the comment was made "it could be the 80"s all over again" a younger employee spoke right up , (he's around 30) "That's good" he said, "Sort out the weak and stupid, make room for the real famers" mind you his dad and uncle farm quite abit. is there still this kind of thinking out there? I don't think this is a good , much less positive ideal towards agriculture. with all that is going on we need all and to say one who would fail is weak or stupid??? I remember some very good and smart operators who left agriculture a few years ago , I would say some WERE NOT weak or stupid.

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My dad always said people got too greedy when the bankers called offering to loan money. My dad declined and survived the 80's while raising 14 kids....

Just because his family farms quite abit doesn't mean they have much of a pot to pee in!

I would not necessarily think they are weak because at least they are trying to get ahead and build a business but for many of them stupid fits pretty good. How else can you describe people who think it's a winning strategy to borrow money and mortgage land and equipment they already own to by more land priced up to multiples of 25 X maximum production. Everyone who bets continuously on inflation to cover the costs of over paying or over spending always loses in the long run, some may win in the short term if they buy and sell before the inevitable crash or " rebalancing" as the economists like to call it now days. Look at the federal debt, it is the exact same scenario, spend like drunken sailors as long as inflation is cheapening the money and raising revenues but the minute posterity sets in it is look out below.

It's disappointing but you know the young man is not alone in that thought no matter how misguided it is. A lot of farmers are feeling their oats strongly after the last several good business years. The sense of brotherhood that existed prior to the 1990's is gone in our county. Anybody of any financial capability wants to cut the throat of his competition friend or otherwise. The measure of success is strictly financial anymore even in farming. I've had my difficulties due to mainly being in an uphill situation most of my life and it is common to be called out for my failings nowadays. There have been no shortage of people calling for my final departure from farming. These people at some point will realize life is the great equalizer amongst human beings. I've seen guys get terminal illnesses, bad divorce, and devastating lawsuits. On top one minute and on the way to being sold out the next.

I'd like to walk up to him at their auction,pat him on the back and just say "Weak and stupid",then walk away.

Randy you and I think very much a like.

This area used to be the typical small mixed farming area of 100 to 200 acres since it was settled about 150 years ago. Then in 1969, three families from near a city sold their farms there and arranged a purchase of 1500 acres all around our farm. They put on quite a show---drove 4 brand new big Case tractors up, each pulling several implements, a couple used tractors, D6 Dozer 3 straight trucks etc. My brothers and I worked for them that summer and baled 40,000 bales of hay. They called may Dad "the gardener " and wanted to hire him as their full time mechanic. Barns were taken down, moved, rebuilt , feed lots and pig barns were built. Things went well for a few years, the dealers were bending over backwards to service them, and then started the not so slow decline. In less than 10 years, there was only one family left and that farm sold about 5 years after that. ALL the barns have since fallen down, most of the houses are gone and those that are left are low income rentals---you know the kind. Most of the large block of land was sold to offshore interests and remains so today, changing renters every couple of years. There is no neighbourhood left here; on my country block (1200 acres) live two families totaling 6 people.and adjacent blocks are the same. Weak and stupid does come to mind when considering the downfall, but so does too big too fast. There have been a few other BTO's in the area that have come and gone as well, and I'm sure the show ain't over yet. Better to be a little wheel going up than a big wheel going down.

Ben

Interest rates were and are a big part of it also. Way too high in the 80's and way too low for quite some time. Grain embargo to Russia then had a big detrimental effect also. Government causing artificial economic results. I left the farm after tech school in 73. I paid 12% mortgage interest all through the 80's. I lived in Waterloo which had unofficial unemployment rate of about 25%. I think Dubuque was about the same. I didn't necessarily like my job, but had one. You couldn't go shopping for a job elsewhere because the house value's had gone down the tube. So many foreclosed houses on the market at fire sale prices, that the only alternatives were to stay and tough it out, or walk away from the house as my neighbor did. He was employed, but decided to heck with his credit rating and rented a house much cheaper than his mortgage and taxes were. When I moved out in 91 I sold my house for about 75% of what I had in it. I think as a lot of you do, that this is going to happen again, although I hope not with such severe results. Commodity prices have been unusually high for a number of years. The pendulum swung the other way now.

Yeah.

My wife's parents had a neighbor who, with his two sons, in the late 1970's farmed some 3,000 acres. My father-in-law died on New Year's Day, 1980. He died about 7pm and at 8am the next morning this neighbor knocked on my mother-in-law's door and told her if she wanted to sell the farm he'd write a check on the spot. She slammed the door in his face.

Less than five years later, he was farming 240 acres and both sons were working for someone else in town.

An old saying goes, "Be nice to the people you pass on the way up 'cause they're the same ones you'll meet on the way back down".

It was stupid of him to call the failures weak and stupid. However, hard times do shake out the chaff and from that aspect the hard times are not all bad. Every industry or profession needs a house cleaning from time to time.

Well if he is 30 and still is working in town then he is one of the weak an stupid???? Many of the flash in the pan guys of the last few years will not make it long term. The good larger farmers just kind of held the coarse even with the higher grain prices. There is another generations of "punks" farming that are between 25-35 that have no idea how bad it can get. Wait until the bank tells them NO on their operating loans.

I have a very good friend that in 1978 had 450 acres of land free and clear. He owned a White equipment dealership and did not owe any money on anything but the floor planned equipment. In 1985 he was dead broke. He ordered four new combines in 1980 after selling ten new ones in 1979. Right after he took delivery Carter announced the grain embargo. He had to pay floor plan interest rate on those new combines. By 1982-83 that was over 20%. The floor plan interest coupled with falling land and equipment values eat everything he owned. The combines sold at sheriff's sale in 1986. Two of them had holes rusted in the grain bins with under 10 hours of use.

When I went to work at the dealership there where a lot of "farmer friends" that went around trying to rent the ground I had rented. They where telling the landlords I would not be able to pay attention to the farms and work full time. In a few years the shoe was on the other foot. I had land owners coming to me wanting me to rent their ground because I was working in town and paying my rents/bills.

So I would look at the young fellow your talking about and just see a "PUNK"!!!!!!

He's too young to remember the 80's. It's a shame because dad and uncle can talk until they're blue in the face but he won't get it.

With the way things have looked the last two years I have been thinking a lot of the 80's. Have been really analyzing the yields I get and where the best money is. I'm trying to farm smarter not harder. We did just fine on a section back then. My 1000 acres is such small potatoes anymore but I will soldier on.

I remember that the thing that kept us afloat all through the 80's was our diversified crop, hog, and cattle operation. Cattle are coming down but I have purchased some to rotate in the herd. I will keep farrow to finish hogging but that's a long term gain you have to ride.

I did buy a new tractor this fall. I set it up to pay off quickly. I don't want to carry it in the iffy financial future.

weak and stupid? some of those people that went broke were good farmers they just got caught up in the times high interest and jimmy carter didn't help.
lots of the weak and stupid were young guys less than 30 trying to go farming on their own and got bite hard

His folks may farm quite a bit, but sometimes bigger ain't better.

Got a friend who has this saying---Better be careful of the toes you step on on your way up because they will be connected to the a$$ you kiss on your way back down.

All of us who are older have been down this road before. If we keep our head on straight we will be ok when things are better. Good luck.

I was always told dogs wee on big wheels to not just little ones, I seen a few big wheels get a real good wash in my lifetime to L.O.L. I'm watching money conversion rates right now, the only one in Canada thats worth anything is Canadian tire money they give you when you buy stuff in there store it's worth face value to spend it there!. I got a lot of antique tractors and a toy collection, I'm seriously thinking Now might be a good time to not own them or atleast part of them. Dollars under the matress might be the way to go here shortly, if things don't change. I got a few customers borrowed money on good prices, I'm thinking shop work might be a bit short here soon , if some of the little wheels get washed as well.
Regards Robert

33 here. Not taking too kindly to your blanket punk statement. I'd say the "punks" around here are the guys living off their families years of hard work and have this sense of entitlement. Think that a "new" guy doesn't fit in the area. These are the guys that buy a new tractor and "good pick-up" every other year because they need to beat the taxes down a little, or just because they can. They have no clue what it's like to start from scratch, yet look down on the "new" guy. Kind of pushed my button there. Sorry.