OT- Cattle prices??

Casey in Ky · Dec 7, 2015

I know they've fallen quite a bit, but where do they go from here? I've been on the verge of buying back in(sold out several years ago and never should have) and I was waiting for prices to drop. Part of me feels like they'll continue to drop, I honestly haven't done my due diligence and really tries to analyze things. I really had planned on buying some fall callers in late winter/early spring, but I guy I know that has some really good middle aged(6 year olds), preg checked, Angus/Simmental cows that are due to calve in March/April. He price them $1800 a head. Seems pretty fair...opinions?

Farmaller · Dec 7, 2015

Think I'd wait till early spring, unless prices seem to be on the rise earlier than that, I've been hearing that they will drop through spring, just got 5 young bred heifers, due to calf anytime for $1200, and probably will regret it if they drop more. I'm in Va

M Nut · Dec 7, 2015

Bred cows in my area of MN can be purchased easily in the $1200 range. Year ago, double that. I think $1800 is quite high for today's market.

JD Seller · Dec 7, 2015

$1800 is too high in the market today. They would be more in the $1200-1300 around here right now. Feed costs have dropped but the sales price of beef has dropped as much. If I was in your shoes I would wait until after the first of the year to even think of buying back in.

Tom in TN · Dec 7, 2015

Casey,

I sold 4 black calves last Thursday at the Tennessee Livestock Producers sale barn in Columbia, TN. They averaged 500 lbs. and brought an average of $1.35 pound. If those prices hold and if they are appropriate for your area, those calves that are going to be born in the Spring, ought to give you about $700.00 apiece in the Fall. Considering feed, vaccinations, and management, you might net $500.00 apiece from them.

Would that pencil out okay for you?

Tom in TN

Pair-a-dice farm · Dec 7, 2015

(quoted from post at 21:35:04 12/07/15) I know they've fallen quite a bit, but where do they go from here? I've been on the verge of buying back in(sold out several years ago and never should have) and I was waiting for prices to drop. Part of me feels like they'll continue to drop, I honestly haven't done my due diligence and really tries to analyze things. I really had planned on buying some fall callers in late winter/early spring, but I guy I know that has some really good middle aged(6 year olds), preg checked, Angus/Simmental cows that are due to calve in March/April. He price them $1800 a head. Seems pretty fair...opinions?

That sounds on the high side to me but I'm still seeing bred cows in the 2nd-3rd period bringing over $1500. There was a dispersal sale at the local barn last Saturday. Some were registered and some not. The top cow calf 3-in-1 sold for $9500. Good 2yo bred heifers sold for $2500-3000., most were Angus/Gelbvieh cross. Either somebody knows something or there were a bunch of fools. I'm betting on the latter.
I've got some cull steers that I'm taking to the sale tomorrow. I had thought I would keep them til spring but I'm going to bite the bullet and get them off the feed bill.

LAA · Dec 8, 2015

Too high, 1500 pound middle aged short bred and medium bred good cows such as you describe are bringing $1100.00 in Kentucky right now if you check the USDA market reports. A good rule of thumb for any short bred commercial cow 5 years old and up is slaughter price plus $100.00, a little more for 7-9 months bred or if bred to a black bull. Bred cows normally get a bump in the spring when the grass starts to green up and will be the cheapest in Jan/Feb. I buy a lot of cows out the farm gate and most of those are bought in the winter, I get a lot of out of bounds starting offers that I cannot possibly pay but 8 out of 10 times thay call me back when reality sets in.

Nebraska Cowman · Dec 8, 2015

Yes, things have gone to heck sharply. Slaughter cows in the lower 60s and bulls in the 80s. I was told that a dispersion last week the cows averaged 22 so somebody is buying cows. But I would not be interested. It's hard enough to keep the ones I have. I do not know where the bottom is but I am pretty sure we will find out. And we won't like it.

Lazy WP · Dec 8, 2015

Bred cows and heifers are still going for a premium. My guess is some of the ranchers got their calves sold early enough that they made a pretty decent income. I would bet that some of these guys are trying to minimize their tax burden by buying replacements back.
I will bet after the first of the year we see cows take another hit.

Casey in Ky · Dec 8, 2015

Appreciate all the input. I knew he was a little high on them, but I know these cows are top notch. Average weight is 1400lbs, they were all synced when they were bred, and they are bred to black bull. He also had ultrasounds done just a little while back. And usually I would pay more for an animal off the farm than at an sale. This guy really knows his cattle. That being said, and I still think the market is heading down, I think I'm going to pass. Probably look to buy in February or March. I'll be out less feed thru winter then anyway, and might could find some fall bred cows by then. Thanks.

OT- Cattle prices??

Casey in Ky

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M Nut

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Tom in TN

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Pair-a-dice farm

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LAA

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Lazy WP

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Casey in Ky

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