What to do

oldtanker · Sep 10, 2014

We know that farming is a gamble. This years current grain prices really brings that home. So, for next year what to do for a cash crop? Corn, hoping it goes back up? Beans? Wheat?

I really don't know what to think.

P.S. it's tractor related cause you have to use a tractor to get crops in...

rick

dej(Jed) · Sep 10, 2014

Plant hops. There is a shortage.

2 Old 2 care · Sep 10, 2014

You win some, you lose some, and some get rained out. In the good years, you try to get far enough ahead of the game so that you can absorb the hit in the bad years. Then you tighten up the belt and try to lose as little as possible.

Personally, I'd expect a run of 7 to 10 years in a down market. Not entirely the fault of any one person, just the way farming is some times. As big as the ag economy is, there are so few farmers these days relative to the population as a whole. We just don't have the clout any more.

With so many farmers in their latter years, I'd expect to see quite a few hanging it up in the next year or two. Being a land lord is a lot more attractive these days.

2 Old 2 care · Sep 10, 2014

Boy, If we could only find a way to grow COMMON SENSE.....Talk about a short supply these days.

rrlund · Sep 10, 2014

Move to Michigan and grow medical marijuana if your conscience will let you. Those dope dealers are doing quite well for themselves.

Dave H (MI) · Sep 10, 2014

I will keep my existing hay fields. I intend to plant more corn next year...I have the equipment and I like growing corn. I have a smallish field where I try new things on a limited basis to see if it works for me. I was going to plant some oats there next year but the gossip mill is talking about a neighbor to the north who took off his oats this year and cannot give them away. Doesn't make sense to me, horses still eat oats don't they? Guess I better check with the elevator. I am kind of at a loss on the small field...corn on corn? Or maybe sunflowers? Barley?

My oldest daughter came to me with that idea about hops. I told her to see if there is equipment needed and how much it costs or, better yet, is it mostly manual labor and who the he!! is going to do it...let me guess...

oldtanker · Sep 10, 2014

(quoted from post at 10:02:29 09/10/14) I will keep my existing hay fields. I intend to plant more corn next year...I have the equipment and I like growing corn. I have a smallish field where I try new things on a limited basis to see if it works for me. I was going to plant some oats there next year but the gossip mill is talking about a neighbor to the north who took off his oats this year and cannot give them away. Doesn't make sense to me, horses still eat oats don't they? Guess I better check with the elevator. I am kind of at a loss on the small field...corn on corn? Or maybe sunflowers? Barley?

My oldest daughter came to me with that idea about hops. I told her to see if there is equipment needed and how much it costs or, better yet, is it mostly manual labor and who the he!! is going to do it...let me guess...

That's odd. I just combined some oats for my BIL. He kept most but did haul one load in. The elevator almost begged him to bring in more. According to what I can find oats are over 3.50 a bushel.

Rick

oldtanker · Sep 10, 2014

(quoted from post at 09:40:13 09/10/14) You win some, you lose some, and some get rained out. In the good years, you try to get far enough ahead of the game so that you can absorb the hit in the bad years. Then you tighten up the belt and try to lose as little as possible.

Personally, I'd expect a run of 7 to 10 years in a down market. Not entirely the fault of any one person, just the way farming is some times. As big as the ag economy is, there are so few farmers these days relative to the population as a whole. We just don't have the clout any more.

With so many farmers in their latter years, I'd expect to see quite a few hanging it up in the next year or two. Being a land lord is a lot more attractive these days.

Very true. I did read and interesting article this morning. It claimed that with total cost of production plus land rent at 400-600 and acre that corn will lose 300 dollars an acre this year? That's really going to hurt the BTO's that rent thousands of acres if true.

Rick

waltdavies · Sep 10, 2014

We grow hops around here, they required a lot of overhead trellises to hold them off the ground and a special truck to harvest them and a lot of hands to work the truck when cutting them down. If you setup for them then it's cost productive but starting from scratch you won't make a dime for 3 to 4 years.
Walt

Lazy WP · Sep 10, 2014

I have hops growing wild. At least I think they are hops.

2 Old 2 care · Sep 10, 2014

I made it through the 80's no worse for the wear. So did my dad. We learned a few lessons then. Not least of which is all the guys who weren't very business savvy were the first to fold their tent and go home. There'll be a few big operators lose their hind ends....There'll be a few that do just fine. Same applies to smaller operators. It's "survival of the fittest".

Cutting cost is critical, but RETURN ON INVESTMENT is just as important. Just because times are tough, you can't just quit spending. It's simply a matter of spending in a way that'll bring dollars back to you at the end of the year.

And the single most important thing (as I see it) that'll get a person through these times has to have already been done....Lower asset to debt ratio when prices were ridiculously HIGH. This is NOT a good time to be carrying a heavy debt load. (Not that there is EVER a GOOD time)

RayP(MI) · Sep 10, 2014

Last week the state police helicopter and a bunch of cops swarmed this area. (Some were out of their jurisdictions.) Collected a bunch of the stuff from around the neighborhood. Oh, the costs of doing business. (Didn't find any on my farm.)

I'll stick to oats and hay!

NY 986 · Sep 10, 2014

Now would be the time to evaluate each field's potential versus your desire for that field. I would say to grow corn with today's costs I would want to be assured barring a disaster that a field should have potential for 180 plus dried shelled bushels per acre to take a chance. If your are getting results below that and do not have a firm answer to increase yield then it might be a good idea to go to hay unless you want to gamble on the price and/or yield. Too many guys do things on a whim, or because corn looks impressive, or that's how dad did it, or some other reason that does not take a look at the bottom line. Keep doing an analysis for each field with each planned crop and see what your calculator or pencil tells you versus your heart.

Red1 · Sep 10, 2014

Keep track of whats going on around the world. Russia was supposedly going to embargo all American ag products..

Watch for droughts around the world...for flooding.[b:12a6ed84f6] Future forecasts.[/b:12a6ed84f6] The global warming effect is impacting agriculture around the world.

rrlund · Sep 10, 2014

They found some on my place a few years ago. The dirtbag that was growing it talked his wife in to pleading guilty for him. She'd not supposed to be around it as part of her probation,but he got a permit to grow it and use it. I was raking hay behind their trailer Sunday and could see the stuff right through the window under the grow lights.

Dave H (MI) · Sep 10, 2014

I thought that was really strange also. I had intended to talk to my hay customers and see if they had an interest...like "cash deposit" interest, and I would grow it for them. Have to see what the elevator says also.

Dave H (MI) · Sep 10, 2014

Oh, I know...just have to educate the younger generation. I pointed out to her that those are some big posts with strong lines that hold up the vines. All that stuff costs. And the minute I buy all that stuff the bottom will fall out of the hops market. Look what I did to corn!

Fordfarmer · Sep 10, 2014

Oats are hard to find here in n/w WI too. I have enough for my
own use,( IF I can get them out of the field!) but the guys at the
feed mill are always asking if I have more, or any to sell.

paul · Sep 10, 2014

Oats is valuable because it grows well in Canada, we typically train down a lot of oats to the USA.

But, the trains are all busy, so it needs to be trucked down, and a semi costs a lot more than a train.

So, oats is up in price because of transportation.

if we all switch to cheaper to grow soybeans, we will flood that market real quick and will see $5 soybeans too again.

just one of those cycles.

Not many of the bigger farmers will lose anything this year, they have the costlier crop insurance that protects price levels as well as yields. However, next fall......

We will find the current Farm Bill doesn't help farmers the way they planned.

Paul

Billy NY · Sep 10, 2014

They were flying a detail today in this county, with the Lakota UH-72, NY ARNG supplies the use for local law enforcement, at no cost, its got some nice equipment on it, I was reading about them, being a fan of aircraft, really steps up their ability for detection, wide panoramic view from the cabin, high zoom camera etc., have not heard about any significant busts this year so far, but its not over. Couple years back, north of here they found 6000 plants with it, it was one grow, not scattered, and that's when it first went into service, it replaces the OH-58's and any remaining Bell UH-1's, rarely see any of those flying anymore, they were so common the "Huey" one used to land here still in Olive Drab, in our field when the NYSP first got them for their aviation division back in the early 70's, they still have one or 2 in service.

oldtanker · Sep 10, 2014

(quoted from post at 12:35:48 09/10/14) Oats is valuable because it grows well in Canada, we typically train down a lot of oats to the USA.

But, the trains are all busy, so it needs to be trucked down, and a semi costs a lot more than a train.

So, oats is up in price because of transportation.

if we all switch to cheaper to grow soybeans, we will flood that market real quick and will see $5 soybeans too again.

just one of those cycles.

Not many of the bigger farmers will lose anything this year, they have the costlier crop insurance that protects price levels as well as yields. However, next fall......

We will find the current Farm Bill doesn't help farmers the way they planned.

Paul

I think you are right. As long as I break even I'm ok with it. I don't need the income.

Rick

Bob Harvey · Sep 10, 2014

Move to Colorado and grow pot, OR, move to B.C. and get a licence for same. Problem solved !! ;^)

ShadetreeRet · Sep 10, 2014

It's a little more risky, but when corn is not selling very well by the bushel, around here it sells pretty good by the gallon. The law is so busy looking for drugs now that "distilled water" goes overlooked many times.

Rich_WI · Sep 10, 2014

(quoted from post at 13:25:20 09/10/14) Oh, I know...just have to educate the younger generation. I pointed out to her that those are some big posts with strong lines that hold up the vines. All that stuff costs. And the minute I buy all that stuff the bottom will fall out of the hops market. Look what I did to corn!

The bottom aint going to fall out of hops any time soon. Its stronger than ever and with even more microbreweries (and the the "buy local" thing going around with all the hippies) it sure aint going anywhere.

The question to ask is, is anybody else around you going to plant and supply the micro breweries. Thats the question. If somebody edges you out you are gonna get stuck holding the hops.

Start small. Get to know the brewmaster and get him to commit ($$$$$) to you small crop, he can sell it is limited runs of beer. Add production in following years as you see how things work out. Its a slow crop to get going though but because of the different equipment needed, thats not a bad thing.

Around here, there is still high demand for the locally grown stuff and breweries are still looking for local sources for their hops. They will likely never be satisfied due to all the different varieties of hops and always wanting to brew a variety of beers.

ss55 · Sep 11, 2014

This could be a good time to renegotiate next years rents.

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