ot but farm related (soybeans)

redforlife · Sep 8, 2014

OK. I look in on my local cash grain markets atleast a couple three times a week. Noticed a sharp decline in soybeans, mainly end of last week. Like in the tune of almost $3 a bushel. Even thought it might be wrong info posted on the particular web-site I was looking at. Nope, it was for real. Down even more today. Now my question is, what caused that? And so drastic, and sudden. I hate to be asking this, but I have missed out on listening to any farm news the last few days, and haven't seen any of my farmer friends that would know. To stay topic related, I have been in the field on my M Farmall without a radio.

IaGary · Sep 8, 2014

It has taken about 5 months for soybeans to drop $5 a bushel and it took about 3 months to drop the last $3.

I don't know what time period you are thinking they dropped $3 a bushel.

Maybe a lot of bases was lost in your area the past week or so I don't know?

Gary

redforlife · Sep 8, 2014

Current local grain bid at my most local place is down .13 cents at 9.23. Bean markets likewise have fallen here the last 5 months, probly to the tune of $5.00 a bushel all together. The ironic thing is down a little, down a little, up a little, and down a little. You know the drill. Then like thursday or friday last week, local elevator goes like BOOM, down 2 dollars and 80 some cents in one day. Figured something had to bring that on (that much and that sudden). Just don't know what.

IowaJohn · Sep 8, 2014

End users are full they can wait for new beans off the combine. They went from old crop price to new. New crop price has been running $2-2.50 lower than old here all year.

ss55 · Sep 8, 2014

I suspect people think this falls soybean crop will be bigger than expected.

Labor Day weekend I drove 450 miles through central Minnesota and western Iowa. Soybeans looked great all the way. Moisture is good so the pods should all fill well. If the BTO's had late planted wet spots to beans instead of leaving them fallow to collect insurance payments, I think there would be even more beans.

Dick2 · Sep 8, 2014

I always thought that markets lowered the prices just before harvest starts for a different reasons. 1) They know that a lot of operators need money for payments so they lower the prices.

2) Some farmers have pledged their crop to the elevator that financed seed, fertilizer & chemicals, so they have to sell early to pay off their debt.

3). Many farmers do not have sufficient storage to hold grains until price goes up again. We rarely ever hauled any grain to the elevator during harvest. We just stored the crop until the prices went back up, whether it was winter, spring or early summer.

The grain traders watch the markets for every opportunity to make higher profits.

David G · Sep 8, 2014

We have had some nice rains in the midwest lately, timed about right for beans or long life corn.

Traditional Farmer · Sep 8, 2014

Market prices are set by the bidders in the commodity markets just like any other auction,if the buyers think there will be a glut of something on the market they won't bid as much.There is no such thing as "The Markets" lowering prices its just that contract buyers are making their best guess as to where the prices will go.

Traditional Farmer · Sep 8, 2014

Don't bother asking a farmer they usually don't have a clue,most of the grain farmers were saying a couple years ago that corn could never go under $5 again because of the cost of production they forget or never knew the cost of production and the price of farm commodities have nothing to do with each other.

fixerupper · Sep 8, 2014

Our local elevator had a +1.86 basis a couple of weeks ago and now it's -.30. They must have needed beans to fill a contract real bad. The weather has been good for beans filling pods but it's also been ideal for disease, mold and fungus. We'll find what's out there when the combines roll.

JD Seller · Sep 8, 2014

The higher price was where they where trying to get the last few old crop beans in. The dropped price is for "new" crop soybeans.

The terminals are already getting "new" crop beans in from south of here. Local hauler talked to some truckers at Cargill in Cedar Rapids last week that where hauling new soybeans in.

504 · Sep 8, 2014

they are going back up if the sudden death is half as bad as the coffee drinkers say it is.

formenwhogrow · Sep 9, 2014

Yeah yeah yeah and if an early hard frost is in the forecast, the price will go back up. A previous poster is right, wait until the combines roll.

redforlife · Sep 9, 2014

Thanks all for posting. I understand now what happened. Cash market and new crop market merged. Didn't realize there was that big of difference between the two. Must of been.

T in NE · Sep 9, 2014

The co-op here's still trucking wheat to Omaha and Lincoln. They did get a train in (finally) to get some wheat out. They're hauling from a couple smaller sites to the one with the new rail siding, too. Reopening a couple that were either closed or planned for closing so they have someplace for corn beans and milo this fall.

The one site has stored wheat that's been in the bins for over 5 years. Must have been someone waiting for $9 corn so they could take the hit on storage fees for a tax write-off.

calf · Sep 10, 2014

Yes, the forecast is for low in upper thirtys in MN end of the week. So possible frost in low spots. Talking to a crop consultant today and he said that the beans (SW MN) still had a ways to go. Beans are all moisture, not solids, right now.

FWIW

ot but farm related (soybeans)

redforlife

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IaGary

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redforlife

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IowaJohn

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ss55

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Dick2

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David G

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Traditional Farmer

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Traditional Farmer

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fixerupper

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JD Seller

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504

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formenwhogrow

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redforlife

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T in NE

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calf

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